Dutch wholesale gas prices dropped more than 10% in Week 26, following news of a ceasefire agreement between Iran and Israel that removed market fears of potential oil and gas supply disruptions.
TTF gas futures on the ICE market, Europe’s benchmark for contracts delivering in August 2025, traded around €36/MWh for most of the week. On Monday, June 23, prices peaked at €40.95/MWh—1.1% lower than the previous Friday but 7.1% higher than the prior Monday. However, prices declined steadily, hitting a weekly low of €33.66/MWh on Friday, June 27—a 2.5% drop from the previous day and 18.8% lower than the prior Friday. The weekly average settled at €36.22/MWh, down 10.7% from Week 25.
The sharp midweek price fall was triggered by confirmation that Iran and Israel had agreed to a ceasefire proposed by then U.S. President Donald Trump, which eased supply disruption concerns.
Further downward pressure on prices was driven by ample gas supplies, weakened demand, and growing confidence in the ceasefire’s stability. Norwegian gas exports to continental Europe increased, while demand from power plants softened due to strong renewable energy output.
On Friday, prices continued to decline amid mild weather and stable supply conditions. Meanwhile, Israel’s offshore gas fields—Chevron-operated Leviathan and Energean’s Karish—which had been shut since June 13 due to the conflict, resumed operations. The Leviathan shutdown reportedly caused an estimated $12 million in lost revenue, with companies exploring potential state compensation.
Politically, EU ambassadors failed to approve the 18th sanctions package against Russia, with Hungary and Slovakia opposing the move. Slovakia’s Prime Minister stated the country would block the vote until concerns over gas supplies after 2027 were addressed. Slovakia’s stance reflects worries about the impact of the EU’s RePowerEU initiative aimed at ending reliance on Russian fossil fuels by 2030. Unlike Hungary, Slovakia had not previously blocked sanctions.
