On Thursday, day-ahead electricity prices across Southeast Europe (SEE) and Hungary experienced a notable increase, reversing the softer pricing trends observed earlier in the week. Hungary emerged as a pivotal player, once again setting the regional price ceiling amid significant evening demand dynamics.
Hungary’s HUPX day-ahead baseload price surged to €123.77/MWh, marking an increase of €20.6/MWh from the previous day, thus reinforcing its position as the primary marginal pricing hub in the region. In comparison, neighboring countries saw more clustered pricing with Romania and Bulgaria at €103.02/MWh, Serbia at €101.45/MWh, Greece at €101.23/MWh, and Albania at €99.78/MWh. Slovenia recorded a price of €116.39/MWh and Croatia at €112.10/MWh, while Montenegro maintained the lowest price at €92.79/MWh.
The rise in prices occurred despite only a modest uptick in regional demand, with total consumption across SEE and Hungary projected to reach 34,847 MW—slightly above Wednesday’s figures. This price rebound is attributed to a shift in the generation mix and a continued reliance on imports during peak hours.
Wind energy played a crucial role in supplying additional capacity, increasing sharply to 5,244 MW—an increase of 1,590 MW compared to the previous day—contributing to a total generation of 36,010 MW. However, this was counterbalanced by declines in output from other sources: gas-fired generation fell to 5,208 MW, solar energy decreased to 3,161 MW, and hydro power eased to 7,304 MW.
<pDespite improvements in renewable energy contributions, the region remains structurally dependent on imports; net imports deepened from -1,255 MW to -2,067 MW compared to the previous day. This indicates that while wind generation enhanced supply conditions somewhat, it was not sufficient to eliminate external dependencies entirely.
Furthermore, Hungary’s price premium over Germany narrowed but remained positive; the HU-DE spread tightened from €14.2/MWh on Wednesday to €10/MWh. This situation continues to facilitate west-to-east electricity flows even though imports from the CORE region dropped sharply from 1,350 MW to just 200 MW within a day—suggesting changes in cross-border balancing rather than a reduction in overall import requirements.
The hourly pricing patterns indicate significant evening system stress across most markets. Peak prices typically occurred around hour 20 after solar generation diminished. For instance, Serbian SEEPEX prices varied between €35/MWh and €175/MWh while Hungarian prices exhibited greater volatility ranging from €4.7/MWh at their lowest point up to €254.1/MWh at peak times.
Forward market indicators remain supportive of current pricing structures. Hungarian weekly contracts are priced at elevated levels with Week 13 at €116.5/MWh and Week 14 at €99.5/MWh; April-26 contracts stand at €101/MWh while Cal-26 contracts are priced at €110.5/MWh. The positive forward spreads against Germany suggest expectations of ongoing regional tightness.
<pOn the fuel front, market movements were relatively stable with CEGH gas prices edging up slightly to €54.38/MWh while EU carbon allowances dipped marginally to €65.87/t without significantly impacting power pricing trends.
Structural developments across the region indicate an increasing need for flexibility in energy systems. Hungary is enhancing its battery storage capacity through Alteo’s addition of a new 10 MW unit which brings its total installed capacity to 80 MW. Romania is also advancing its thermal capacity development with multiple bids received for a new 275 MW cogeneration plant. In Bulgaria, ongoing policy discussions regarding EU ETS participation reflect tensions between decarbonization goals and industrial competitiveness.
The overall market landscape indicates controlled firmness rather than outright scarcity; enhanced wind output has improved supply conditions but persistent dependency on imports combined with steep evening demand ramps continue to maintain elevated price levels across the region. Hungary’s influence as a marginal price-setter remains strong as neighboring SEE markets closely track its pricing movements during peak periods.
