In Week 11, a noticeable divergence in electricity prices emerged across the Southeast European (SEE) power markets, influenced by ongoing geopolitical tensions and varying demand levels. The U.S.–Iran conflict has introduced a geopolitical risk premium that has affected global energy prices, particularly impacting thermally dependent markets like Italy. This resulted in Italy experiencing a significant price increase of 4.43%, reaching €147.54/MWh, making it the highest-priced market in the region. Conversely, most Balkan countries saw declines in electricity prices, with Romania and Croatia leading the downward trend at -4.74% and -4.45%, respectively. Other notable decreases were observed in Bulgaria (-3.35%) and Greece (-3.11%), while Hungary also eased by -2.16%. Serbia remained nearly stable with a minimal decline of -0.07%, but Türkiye’s prices surged by 14.75%, reaching €43.41/MWh.
The price fluctuations reflect a broader regional dispersion, with most SEE markets trading above €100/MWh except for Türkiye, Greece, and Serbia. The lowest weekly average was recorded in Türkiye at €43.41/MWh, while Greece followed at €89.54/MWh after its own decline of 3.11%. The overall price range within the region was significant, extending from €43/MWh to €148/MWh, indicative of varying local supply-demand dynamics.
In Central and Western Europe during the same week, power prices also exhibited pronounced divergence. Southwestern markets such as France (+23.31%), Spain (+23.18%), and Portugal (+22.22%) saw substantial increases likely due to reduced renewable output and greater reliance on thermal generation sources. Switzerland experienced a notable rise of 16.62%, reinforcing upward pressure within the Alpine region. Conversely, core Central European hubs like Germany (-12.74%), Poland (-11.08%), and the Netherlands (-6.54%) reported significant decreases supported by strong wind generation and easing fuel costs.
Electricity demand across the SEE region weakened during Week 11, with an overall decline of 2.19% week-on-week to 16,603 GWh, largely driven by milder weather conditions affecting consumption patterns across almost all markets. Romania noted the sharpest drop at -6.36%, followed closely by Hungary (-4.60%) and Serbia (-4.55%). In contrast, larger systems such as Italy and Türkiye showed moderate decreases of -1.55% and -1.58%, respectively.
Renewable energy generation demonstrated resilience during this period, rebounding significantly with an increase of 8.2% week-on-week to 2,811 GWh, primarily due to a surge in wind output (+18.6%). Wind production saw remarkable increases in Türkiye (+28%), Greece (+34%), and Serbia where output more than tripled due to favorable wind conditions. Italy continued to lead total renewable output with solar generation rising by 19.5% to reach 623 GWh—the highest recorded level.
However, hydropower generation faced challenges during Week 11, declining notably by 10.71% week-on-week to 3,247 GWh amidst weaker hydrological conditions across the region—most severely impacting Serbia (-74.5%), Bulgaria (-40.1%), and Greece (-29.9%). Türkiye’s hydropower output fell by 8.5%, contributing significantly to regional losses despite Croatia’s remarkable increase of 255% which partially offset these declines.
Thermal generation also experienced a downturn during this period with total output falling by 5.71% week-on-week to 6,180 GWh due to reductions in both coal/lignite (-7.03%) and gas-fired generation (-4.68%). Greece recorded the steepest drop at -13.3%. In contrast, Romania (+6.2%) and Bulgaria (+12.9%) bucked the trend by increasing lignite output significantly as they shifted towards coal-based generation for supply balance.
Cross-border electricity flows moderated during Week 11 with net imports declining by 9.89% to 1,163 GWh as markets adjusted their balances amidst changing local conditions; Hungary’s imports decreased by -19.5%, while Serbia’s fell sharply by -32%. Meanwhile, Croatia moved further into net import territory indicating tighter local supply constraints; Italy slightly increased its imports by +2.2%. Romania notably increased its net exports by +108%, while Bulgaria transitioned from being a net importer to a net exporter—highlighting evolving supply-demand fundamentals within the region.
