On Monday, day-ahead electricity prices across South-East Europe experienced a significant rebound, reversing the negative trends observed over the weekend. This surge is attributed to a recovery in demand coupled with a decline in renewable energy generation, which has tightened the regional power balance.
Hungary’s HUPX recorded a baseload price of €104.75/MWh, reflecting a remarkable increase of €124.6/MWh compared to the previous day’s pricing environment. Other markets in the region saw similar upward trends, with Romania’s OPCOM at €93.42/MWh, Slovenia’s BSP at €99.64/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX at €98.43/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX cleared at €82.46/MWh, maintaining a discount relative to core Central European markets; Bulgaria and Greece traded around €80/MWh.
This price rebound marks a structural transition from the oversupply conditions experienced over the weekend, primarily driven by high solar output and low demand, toward a tighter weekday system where traditional generation sources have regained their influence on pricing.
A critical factor behind this price increase was a notable rise in electricity demand within the SEE-Hungary region, with forecast consumption climbing to 28,217 MW, an increase of 2,988 MW from the prior day as industrial and commercial activities resumed post-weekend.
Concurrently, renewable generation saw a decline, further alleviating downward pressure on prices. Solar output dipped by 329 MW day-on-day, while hydro generation fell more sharply by 637 MW, attributed to weaker hydrological conditions. Wind generation provided only partial relief with an increase of 147 MW, resulting in increased reliance on thermal sources for power generation.
This shift in the energy mix elevated marginal price-setting technologies on the cost curve, as coal- and gas-fired units regained prominence during peak hours.
The dynamics of cross-border flows also played a role in tightening market conditions; net imports into the SEE-Hungary region decreased to -245 MW, down by 1,164 MW day-on-day, indicating reduced inflows from Central European markets.
The limited availability of imports curtailed supply-side flexibility and reinforced price convergence across neighboring markets, particularly between Hungary, Slovenia, and Croatia. Despite this convergence, Italy continues to present a significant price spread with day-ahead prices reaching €122.41/MWh, sustaining export incentives along the Balkan-Italian corridor.
The intraday price structures exhibited notable volatility characterized by deep midday troughs followed by strong peaks in the evening hours. In Hungary specifically, hourly prices fluctuated widely from negative levels during solar peak hours to highs exceeding €270/MWh, emphasizing the increasing impact of renewable intermittency on market behavior.
The fuel markets remained largely stable during this period, indicating that recent price movements were primarily influenced by power market fundamentals rather than fluctuations in input costs. Austrian CEGH gas prices were stable around €45/MWh, while EU carbon allowances hovered near €75/t, exerting limited directional pressure on electricity pricing.
Nuclear and hydro generation continued to form the backbone of regional supply, contributing 23% and 21%, respectively. Solar accounted for 17%, while coal contributed 18%. Gas-fired generation remained constrained at approximately 9%, yet played an essential role in balancing peak demand needs.
Serbia’s position as a mid-merit market within this regional framework is evident as it consistently trades at a discount to Hungary while facilitating flows between Central Europe and southern Balkans. Data indicates ongoing imports from Hungary alongside exports towards Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, solidifying Serbia’s role as both a transit point and balancing hub.
The outlook for market participants suggests continued volatility driven by interactions between renewable generation patterns and demand cycles. Strong solar production may persistently exert downward pressure on midday prices; however, tightening hydro conditions alongside stable demand could elevate evening peaks, maintaining substantial intraday spreads across South-East European markets.
