Southeast Europe’s power market is increasingly shaped by cross-border flow volatility, with price spreads, renewable variability and import dependence affecting regional trading value. Week 23 data show net imports rising across the area, alongside changes in demand and generation mix. The week also featured wider price differentials between selected markets.
Week 23 net import changes across SEE
Net imports across Southeast Europe increased 9.1% week on week to 1.22 TWh. Hungary recorded the largest increase, with net imports up 64.7% to 179.75 GWh. Romania raised imports by 34.0%, while Croatia increased imports by 18.5%.
Italy remained the region’s largest importer at 950.91 GWh, despite reducing imports by 14.1%. The changes in import volumes coincided with a period of regional system stress, where balancing needs rose alongside shifting generation and renewable output.
Regional stress and balancing role of interconnectors
The flow shifts occurred during a week of strong regional stress, with demand rising by 8.2%. Variable renewables fell by 8.9%, while wind output dropped by 15.5%. Thermal generation increased by 24.5%.
In this environment, interconnectors were used as balancing tools to manage the mismatch between higher demand and lower variable renewable output. The same conditions contributed to persistent differences in market pricing across the region.
Price spreads and trading scope beyond day-ahead
Price spreads remained wide enough to support trading activity across multiple markets. Italy averaged €128.09/MWh, while Greece was at €89.25/MWh. Several Balkan markets clustered around €100/MWh, reflecting sustained divergence between nodes.
The spread levels created opportunities for participants with access to capacity, forecasting tools and scheduling capability. Trading activity extended beyond day-ahead arbitrage to include intraday adjustments, congestion management, transmission rights, balancing positions and portfolio optimisation.
Exporter positions and constraints on convergence
Greece and Türkiye stayed net exporters during Week 23, although their exports fell. Their positions remained relevant because lower-priced export supply can affect neighbouring markets when capacity allows. However, persistent price divergence indicated that physical constraints and market rules continued to limit full convergence.
The role of optionality was highlighted for traders through the ability to shift power from lower-priced nodes to higher-priced markets. Intraday adjustments also depended on changes in wind or solar forecasts, affecting how positions could be managed over shorter time horizons.
Forecasting, capacity monitoring and analytics needs
The growth of renewables increases the value of managing forecast errors and hourly price shifts within trading operations . Market participants therefore require accurate renewable forecasts, demand models, interconnector capacity monitoring and price-spread analytics.
This information requirement aligns with the way cross-border trading has been treated in Week 23 results, where it is described as part of the region’s core market architecture . With demand rising, renewables fluctuating and price spreads persisting, flow volatility creates both risk and opportunity for participants operating across borders .
Elevated by energy.clarion.engineer
