According to a report by the British Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS), Croatia and Slovenia could have the highest electricity prices in the EU by 2015, due to increasing costs of natural gas, coal and CO2 European Emission Allowances (EUA).
The report pointed out that a third of electricity generation capacities in these two countries is based on fossil fuel, so the increase in prices of gas, coal and CO2 will be the most important factor in forming the price of electricity on their markets.
In 2020 and 2021, electricity prices should remain below 50 dollars/MWh. However, by 2025, the price of CO2 is expected to rise to 35 dollars/ton, which will increase the production price in coalfired thermal power plants up to 75 dollars/MWh. The report assumes that 844 MW of coal-fired capacity will remain operational in Slovenia until 2030.
The report also estimates that by 2030, it is not certain that there will be significant rise in electricity production from renewable sources in these two countries, so RES production will have minimal impact on electricity prices. It is expected that wind and solar will account for 4 % of Slovenia’s total production by 2030, and 15 % in case of Croatia. Hydro production is very important for both countries, especially for Croatia, so electricity prices will also be affected by hydrological conditions. On the other hand, due to increasing electricity prices, it is expected that coal-based electricity production will increase its share from current 35 to 39 %.
The study also estimates that Slovenia’s electricity exports to Italy will increase in the second half of the decade, due to increased transmission capacities and Italian coal phase out.
