The Bulgarian Industrial Capital Association (BICA) has expressed concerns about the government’s new compensation scheme for electricity costs, set to take effect from July 1, 2025, to June 30, 2026. According to the association, the proposed mechanism will fail to provide effective relief for non-household consumers, including industrial users.
The draft decree introduces temporary support for energy-intensive customers but has not undergone a broad public consultation. Compensation would only be triggered if the six-month volume-weighted average baseload price on IBEX’s day-ahead market exceeds 122.7 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh). The total indicative budget is capped at around 10 million euros.
BICA’s analysis, based on recent IBEX baseload prices, indicates that prices for July to December 2025 are unlikely to exceed 105.3 euros/MWh and are expected to remain below 102.3 euros/MWh between January and June 2026. Under these conditions, the compensation mechanism would not be activated. The association therefore argues that the trigger level should be lowered to below 102.3 euros/MWh.
If the reference point were reduced to 102.3 euros, average support would amount to about 3 euros/MWh, totaling less than 22.5 million euros across 7.47 terawatt-hours (TWh). However, payments under the six-month mechanism would only reach consumers in February 2026, after the winter peak. BICA suggests that a monthly adjustment mechanism would be more effective. With a monthly threshold of 122.7 euros/MWh, compensation would reach approximately 9.2 million euros for November and December 2025, and under 14.8 million euros for January and February 2026.
Alternatively, applying a 50% coverage at a monthly reference price of 112.5 euros/MWh would yield around 18.4 million euros in the final months of 2025 and less than 21.5 million euros through June 2026. BICA believes that these alternatives would offer a fairer balance for all parties involved. The association also highlights that Southeastern Europe, including Bulgaria, continues to experience electricity prices up to 50% higher than those in Central and Western Europe during certain months, emphasizing the need for a more flexible and responsive support framework.
