In the third week of February, Brent oil futures on the ICE market exhibited a significant upward trend, culminating in a weekly high of $71.76 per barrel by February 20. This marks a notable recovery from a low of $67.42 per barrel recorded on February 17, representing a 5.9% increase over the previous week and the highest price point since July 2025.
The rise in Brent prices can be attributed to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The anticipation surrounding stalled negotiations between the United States and Iran, alongside potential discussions regarding Russia and Ukraine, contributed to initial price fluctuations. However, as diplomatic efforts showed minimal progress and regional tensions continued, oil prices rebounded strongly in the latter half of the week.
On the gas front, TTF futures also demonstrated volatility during this period. The market saw a weekly minimum settlement of €29.82 per MWh on February 17, the lowest since early January. Following this dip, prices rallied past €31 per MWh, reaching a peak of €33.52 per MWh on February 19 before settling at €32.03 per MWh on February 20—1.4% lower than the previous week’s close.
Milder weather forecasts across Europe and warmer conditions in the U.S., which increased LNG export availability, initially drove gas prices downward, briefly pushing them below €30 per MWh. Nonetheless, concerns regarding potential supply disruptions due to heightened U.S.-Iran tensions provided upward momentum for gas prices in the latter part of the week.
In parallel, CO₂ emission allowance futures for December 2026 on the EEX market began with a weekly low of €69.16 per ton on February 16, marking their lowest level since May 2025. However, prices stabilized above €70 per ton for most sessions thereafter, peaking at €73.79 per ton by February 20—a 4.4% increase compared to the prior week.
The interplay between geopolitical events and market responses highlights ongoing uncertainties within global energy markets, particularly as stakeholders navigate fluctuating supply dynamics and regulatory frameworks influenced by international relations.
