Albania and North Macedonia entered the definitive CBAM period with sharply different electricity-market positions. Their respective borders with Greece now illustrate the competitive divide between hydro-based and fossil-intensive power systems.
Albania averaged €88.6/MWh in Q2 2026, while Greece averaged €90.2/MWh. The price spread narrowed to only €1.6/MWh, compared with €10.6/MWh in the first quarter. Despite the limited premium, scheduled Albanian exports to Greece remained broadly stable at around 196 GWh, increasing approximately 3% year on year.
Albania’s advantage lies in its zero CBAM default emission factor. The country’s hydro-dominated generation can therefore remain competitive even when the day-ahead spread is narrow. During periods of strong hydrology, the zero factor gives Albanian exports a structural advantage over fossil-based neighbours.
North Macedonia faced the opposite outcome. Its average day-ahead price of €91.6/MWh was close to Greece’s €90.2/MWh, leaving almost no export arbitrage. At the same time, the country’s national default factor of 0.887 tCO₂/MWh implied a CBAM cost of approximately €66.77/MWh.
Exports from North Macedonia to Greece fell 78% year on year, while Greek exports towards North Macedonia increased by around 70%. Greece’s growing solar and wind output strengthened its role as a regional supplier, reversing its older position as a major destination for Balkan electricity.
The contrast demonstrates that CBAM does not affect all non-EU electricity exporters equally. Albania can maintain market access without relying on complex actual-value procedures because its default factor is zero. North Macedonia’s thermal generation structure exposes the entire system to a substantial carbon cost, including renewable plants that may not yet be able to demonstrate installation-specific emissions.
The result is a differentiated investment environment. Albanian hydro, solar and wind projects can build cross-border strategies around Greek and wider EU prices with comparatively lower carbon risk. North Macedonian renewable projects require a stronger compliance structure to avoid being represented by the national fossil-based factor.
The market consequences can become self-reinforcing. A low-carbon system retains export revenue and attracts further renewable investment. A carbon-intensive system loses market access, receives weaker price signals and may find it harder to finance the assets needed to decarbonise.
North Macedonia’s solar production is also understated in the regional dataset because some output is reported only as forecast and distribution-connected generation is largely absent. That reporting weakness is itself relevant. A system that cannot fully document its renewable output risks appearing more carbon intensive than its actual production mix.
The two countries therefore face different strategic priorities. Albania must convert its zero-factor advantage into bankable cross-border PPAs and stronger transmission integration. North Macedonia must improve renewable metering, system data, contractual traceability and access to actual-value verification. The Greek border is already showing the commercial cost of the difference.
