In the week spanning January 12 to January 18, 2026, TTF gas prices on the ICE market demonstrated a notable increase, reflecting tightening market conditions. The February 2026 futures commenced at €30.25/MWh on January 12, marking the week’s lowest point. Prices rose progressively, reaching €31.47/MWh on January 13 (+4.1%) and €31.81/MWh on January 14 (+1.1%). The momentum continued to build on January 15, with prices climbing to €33.16/MWh (+4.2%) and peaking at €36.88/MWh by January 16, an impressive day-on-day rise of 11.2%. The weekly average concluded at €32.71/MWh, reflecting a substantial increase of 16.6% from the previous week due to escalating supply concerns and heightened demand linked to colder weather.
Several contributing factors led to this upward price trend during the week. Forecasts predicting colder temperatures towards the end of January played a significant role, alongside low European gas storage levels estimated at around 50%. Additional pressures stemmed from disruptions in U.S. LNG exports, potential uncertainties surrounding supply from Iran, and increased demand from Asia due to a cold spell. However, a temporary alleviation occurred on January 15 when statements from the U.S. president eased fears regarding military tensions in the Middle East.
At the beginning of 2026, European gas storage was weaker compared to previous years, with approximately 61% capacity at year-end 2025 versus 72% at the same time in 2024. This condition does not inherently signal market tightness but does heighten sensitivity to immediate market conditions. A colder-than-normal winter could necessitate higher withdrawals and more significant refill volumes later in the year; conversely, a milder winter would alleviate pressure during summer injection periods.
Current market indicators suggest a relatively stable outlook bolstered by strong LNG inflows and diminished competition for spot cargoes from Asia. Seasonal spreads remain tight, indicating limited concerns regarding summer supply constraints and manageable refill requirements under typical weather scenarios.
The initial storage dynamics for the year imply a market that is well-balanced yet sensitive to fluctuations. With inventories starting lower than previous years, weather patterns in the first quarter will be pivotal in shaping refill demands, price movements, and overall storage utilization throughout 2026.
