The relationship between TTF gas and SEE electricity prices is becoming less direct. Week 25 made that decoupling visible. TTF futures averaged €41.76/MWh, down 14.8%, while power prices rose across Serbia, Hungary, Romania, Croatia and Italy. The fuel price fell, but the electricity system tightened.
This decoupling does not mean gas has become irrelevant. Gas-fired generation rose 32.3%, adding 771 GWh week-on-week. Gas plants were more important, not less. But the power price was driven by the volume and timing of dispatch, not only by the fuel input cost.
The market needed more thermal generation because demand rose, wind weakened and hydro declined. Solar increased, but its contribution was concentrated in daylight hours. The evening market still needed dispatchable capacity. That is where electricity prices separated from the gas trend.
A recurring TTF decoupling note should track the spread between gas movement and power movement. When gas falls and power falls, the market is fuel-cost driven. When gas rises and power rises, the pass-through is direct. But when gas falls and power rises, the driver is system scarcity. Week 25 belonged to that third category.
This distinction is vital for hedging. Industrial buyers cannot rely only on gas-market views to manage power cost. Traders need to track residual load, hydro, wind, interconnectors and hourly demand. Developers need to understand that project revenue may rise during scarcity even when fuel prices are lower.
SEE electricity is becoming a market of physical shape. Gas remains one layer, but the decisive signal is increasingly the availability of firm power during constrained hours.
