Week 25 showed that stronger LNG availability does not automatically lower electricity prices. LNG inflows into Greece rose 19.7% to 722.23 GWh, Italian LNG flows increased 5.27% to 4,004.02 GWh, and Croatia remained broadly stable at 635.84 GWh. Yet power prices rose in Italy, Croatia, Hungary, Romania and Serbia.
This creates the need for an LNG-to-power pass-through monitor. The question is not whether LNG is available, but whether that availability reduces marginal power prices or simply enables more gas-fired dispatch during scarcity periods.
Italy is the clearest case. LNG inflows increased, but Italy still averaged €127.69/MWh, because weaker hydro and wind forced a sharp rise in thermal generation. Gas was available, but electricity remained expensive because the system needed firm output and imports.
Greece showed a more stabilising version of the same mechanism. Higher LNG availability, stronger renewables and gas-fired flexibility helped keep prices lower at €85.50/MWh. The difference was not LNG alone; it was the full electricity mix.
Croatia shows the third pattern. LNG inflows were stable, but prices still rose 11.2%, driven by demand, imports and weaker renewable output. Gas security did not remove power-market exposure.
The monitor should track LNG inflows, gas hub prices, gas-fired generation, power prices and hourly scarcity. It should distinguish between fuel-cost relief and flexibility value. During tight weeks, LNG-backed gas plants may support security of supply while still setting high electricity prices.
For policymakers, the lesson is that LNG infrastructure strengthens resilience, but power affordability requires storage, grids, renewables, demand response and flexible dispatch. For traders, LNG data is useful only when linked to power generation behaviour.
