Greece and Bulgaria were the main price moderators in SEE during Week 25. Greece fell 6.6% to €85.50/MWh, while Bulgaria declined 6.4% to €87.58/MWh. At the same time, both markets strengthened their export positions, making them the natural focus for an export pocket watch.
The Greek story was driven by renewables and gas flexibility. Variable RES generation rose 18.2%, supported by a 37.5% increase in wind and an 11.4% increase in solar. Greece also used gas-fired generation to balance the system, while the absence of lignite did not prevent prices from falling. That mix positioned Greece as a relatively competitive southern market during a week when much of SEE tightened.
Bulgaria’s case was different. Solar strengthened, exports rose sharply, and the country managed to reduce prices despite a major hydro decline of 39.4%. Bulgarian net exports increased 91.8%, confirming its role as a supplier into the regional balance.
The projection is that Greece and Bulgaria can continue to act as cheaper export pockets during high-renewable weeks, but the position is not guaranteed. Weak solar, lower wind, coal availability issues, hydro stress or border congestion can quickly reduce their moderating role.
For SEE traders, the Greece–Bulgaria pocket creates spread opportunities against Romania, Serbia, Hungary and Italy. For buyers, it offers a reference for lower-priced regional supply. For developers, it shows that renewable output can reduce prices locally, but value depends on export capability and delivery timing.
The export pocket watch should track price spreads, net flows, solar output, wind generation, hydro conditions and interconnector availability. Greece and Bulgaria are not simply cheaper markets. They are potential balancing zones for the wider SEE system.
