The value of cross-border capacity is rising across SEE. Week 25 produced wide price differences: Türkiye at €16.66/MWh, Greece at €85.50/MWh, Serbia at €85.73/MWh, Bulgaria at €87.58/MWh, Croatia at €102.36/MWh, Romania at €104.84/MWh, Hungary at €109.16/MWh and Italy at €127.69/MWh. Such spreads create opportunity only when electricity can physically move.
That is why a cross-border congestion premium should become a recurring market indicator. It would measure the value of interconnector access between lower-priced and higher-priced zones, especially during evening hours. The premium is not just the price spread. It is the spread adjusted for capacity availability, congestion, losses, nomination costs and balancing risk.
Serbia–Hungary is one of the most important corridors. The Week 25 spread of €23.43/MWh created clear commercial interest. Bulgaria–Romania also matters, given Bulgaria’s cheaper export position and Romania’s volatility. Greece–Bulgaria is relevant for southern balancing. Croatia–Slovenia–Italy links are important because Italy remains the premium demand sink.
The projection is that congestion value will rise during summer. High solar output can create local midday surplus, while evening scarcity creates demand for imports elsewhere. This increases the value of flexible transmission access and accurate nomination strategy.
For renewable developers, congestion risk can reduce capture prices if projects are located behind constrained nodes. For traders, congestion creates optionality. For industrial buyers, it can transmit higher regional prices into domestic procurement even when local generation improves.
SEE market integration is advancing, but not evenly. That unevenness is where congestion premiums are created.
