Refineries in Croatia, Romania, Bulgaria and Serbia are gaining strategic importance for regional fuel security as diesel supplies tighten and long-distance imports become scarce, costly or unreliable. Dependable local production can reduce exposure to seaborne cargoes affected by Gulf disruptions, tanker shortages and higher insurance costs.
Local refining also shortens supply chains for landlocked markets. A refinery operating at high utilisation can reduce reliance on imported products, provided crude deliveries and plant operations remain stable.
In Croatia, Rijeka has completed a nearly €700 million upgrade centred on a delayed coker, increasing diesel yield and crude flexibility. Romania’s Petrobrazi operated above 98% utilisation in the first nine months of 2026 and reached 100% in the third quarter.
Burgas says its diesel production exceeds Bulgarian domestic consumption, leaving an exportable surplus. In Serbia, Pančevo has raised crude processing to support domestic supply under a complex sanctions environment.
The four refineries form a regional system despite differences in ownership and commercial strategies. Their maintenance schedules, crude supply and utilisation rates can affect cross-border product flows and determine how much local supply is available before import requirements rise.
An outage at one plant can shift demand quickly to neighbouring refineries and increase truck, rail or barge imports from another market. Throughput, feedstock access and diesel yields also affect available supply, while changes in operating measures can signal regional price pressure before it reaches the pump.
Refining margins in the fourth quarter of 2026 remain supportive for well-supplied Southeast European refiners. The first quarter of 2027 is expected to continue favouring high-utilisation plants, although margins can normalise as global refinery runs recover; unplanned outages would create sharp local product premiums.
