Electricity markets across Southeast Europe increased sharply for delivery on 26 May 2026, with Serbia among the most expensive pricing zones. Lower wind generation, higher temperatures and tighter import availability raised balancing needs across interconnected systems. The session also reflected shifting renewable output patterns, particularly during evening peak hours when solar production declines.
Day-ahead prices climb across SEE exchanges
Serbia’s SEEPEX day-ahead market rose to EUR 115.87/MWh, up 7.3% versus the previous day. Prices traded above nearly all neighboring exchanges except Italy, where prices reached EUR 126/MWh. Montenegro’s BELEN market increased to EUR 110.53/MWh, while Hungary’s HUPX settled at EUR 112.59/MWh. Romania’s OPCOM climbed to EUR 107.93/MWh, indicating a broad tightening trend.
Wind decline shifts dispatch toward thermal generation
The price increase was driven primarily by a deterioration in wind output across the SEE market cluster. Total wind generation fell by more than 1 GW, dropping from 3,911 MW to 2,834 MW. The reduction led system operators and market participants to use more gas-fired and coal generation during key balancing periods.
Gas-fired generation rose by more than 700 MW day-on-day, while coal output also moved higher as thermal units returned to the margin. Hydro generation improved modestly due to stronger river flows and reservoir support, but it did not fully offset the wind shortfall.
Solar rebound eases midday, volatility persists into evening
Solar generation partially cushioned the system during midday hours, with regional output rebounding to 5,838 MW. That level was nearly 1.3 GW higher than in the prior session. Despite the midday recovery, trading curves showed that solar continued to contribute to volatility rather than remove it.
Midday prices briefly approached zero or negative territory in several markets, while evening hours saw sharp upward spikes once solar output faded. Hungary recorded the strongest intraday swings on the day-ahead profile referenced in hourly trading outcomes. HUPX hourly prices fell below zero during midday before rising above EUR 250/MWh in evening hours.
The same pattern appeared across Slovenia, Croatia and Romania, though less extremely than in Hungary. For Serbia, the pricing structure increasingly reflected a shift away from baseload coal-market behavior toward a more flexible but more volatile balancing environment. Thermal balancing capacity remained central during evening periods.
Higher demand and tighter imports support scarcity pricing signals
Regional electricity demand across SEE increased to nearly 28 GW, up almost 2 GW day-on-day as temperatures moved into the 23–24°C range. Cooling demand began earlier than usual this year, adding stress to balancing conditions while renewable intermittency stayed elevated.
Cross-border imports tightened as well, with net regional imports declining to 553 MW. Imports from Austria and Slovakia into the Hungarian-Slovenian corridor dropped significantly compared with the previous trading session. German power prices rose above EUR 100/MWh, reducing the effectiveness of west-to-east price arbitrage that often moderates SEE volatility.
The widening Hungary-Germany spread reached approximately EUR 14.7/MWh, pointing to divergence between Central European and SEE market structures. With renewable penetration rising faster in SEE than transmission reinforcement and storage deployment, localized scarcity pricing emerged during evening ramps even when daylight hours saw heavy solar oversupply.
Forward curves show elevated expectations alongside fuel and carbon costs
No forward curve markup beyond source figures
The forward market continued to reflect structurally elevated pricing expectations for Hungary and related commodities inputs. Hungarian week-ahead and June contracts remained around EUR 103–110/MWh. Austrian CEGH gas prices stayed near EUR 49.5/MWh, while EUA carbon prices held above EUR 76/t.
Evolving policy backdrop in Europe and Serbia affects project timelines
The trading session occurred amid broader European concerns about energy inflation levels. European policymakers warned that electricity and gas prices are likely to remain structurally elevated beyond 2027, even if geopolitical tensions ease, due to delayed normalization, supply-chain pressures and persistent fuel-market uncertainty.
