Serbia is grappling with a significant challenge in its renewable energy sector, as it faces a gap of 0.4 to 1.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) of green electricity needed to meet the demands of exporters subject to the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM). This gap highlights the necessity for additional renewable energy projects that can provide traceable Guarantees of Origin (GOs) to satisfy compliance requirements for CBAM-exposed industries. The current energy landscape in Serbia is heavily reliant on fossil fuels, with the 2024 residual mix indicating that brown coal and lignite constitute 66.60% of energy sources, while hydropower, natural gas, wind, and solar contribute only marginally.
To effectively bridge this gap, Serbia must focus on building new renewable energy capacity while ensuring that these projects are specifically earmarked for exporters. The annual energy yield from installed capacity is crucial in determining how many megawatts must be developed to fulfill this demand. For wind energy, a conservative capacity factor of 30-35% suggests that each megawatt can produce between 2.63 and 3.07 gigawatt-hours (GWh) annually. In contrast, solar installations yield less, producing approximately 1.31 to 1.58 GWh per megawatt per year.
If Serbia were to rely solely on wind energy to close the lower end of the gap (0.4 TWh), it would require an additional capacity of approximately 130-152 megawatts (MW). To address the higher end (1.4 TWh), roughly 456-532 MW would be necessary. This translates into needing between one and four dedicated wind parks of about 150 MW each, specifically allocated for exporter contracts and GOs.
On the other hand, pursuing a solar-only solution presents a more complex scenario due to lower annual yields per MW. To meet the lower target of 400 GWh annually through solar alone would necessitate around 253-305 MW of solar capacity; achieving the upper target would require about 886-1,069 MW. This could mean developing three solar parks at the lower end and up to eleven at the higher end—complicating project management and increasing exposure to market risks.
Given these dynamics, a blended approach appears most viable for Serbia’s exporters—targeting approximately 60% of annual renewable needs from wind and 40% from solar sources. Under this framework, closing the lower gap would involve securing around 240 GWh from wind and 160 GWh from solar annually. This translates into about 78-91 MW of wind capacity and roughly 101-122 MW of solar capacity in project terms.
At the high end of the spectrum, this blended strategy implies procuring around 840 GWh from wind and 560 GWh from solar annually—resulting in an estimated requirement for about two wind parks combined with four solar parks sized at around 100 MW each.
Financially, these projects carry varied capital expenditure (CAPEX) implications based on site conditions and development cycles. Conservative estimates suggest that utility-scale solar may range from €0.55 million to €0.85 million per MW while onshore wind could range from €1.10 million to €1.55 million per MW. Under these assumptions, a single 150 MW wind park could require between €165 million and €233 million in CAPEX, whereas three solar parks might total between €165 million and €255 million.
In terms of connection priorities, it is essential for Serbia’s renewables to integrate effectively into the grid without facing curtailment or congestion issues—especially as demand centers are concentrated in regions like Belgrade-Danube basin where CBAM-exposed industries are located.
The BeoGrid 2025 reinforcement initiative aims to enhance transmission capabilities essential for accommodating increased renewable integration and ensuring reliable delivery for exporters’ needs under their power purchase agreements (PPAs). Additionally, deploying modular solar solutions can help diversify connection points across various locations rather than concentrating efforts solely along specific corridors.
Ultimately, successful navigation of Serbia’s exporter gap hinges not only on physical infrastructure but also on institutional frameworks governing attribute allocation for GOs. The market dynamics surrounding GOs will likely shift as demand increases; thus ensuring that new projects have their attributes contractually assigned specifically for exporters will be critical in closing this gap efficiently.
In summary, addressing Serbia’s green electricity deficit does not require an overwhelming leap toward large-scale renewable deployment but rather a focused approach aimed at strategically building out targeted projects that are verifiably linked to exporter needs.
