European gas prices have risen by almost 30% since April to around €65/MWh, according to Srbijagas general director Dušan Bajatović. He said Brent crude moved above $90 a barrel, increasing pressure on energy costs ahead of the winter heating season. Bajatović linked the move to stronger European and Asian demand, slower replenishment of EU storage facilities, tighter LNG supply and a gradual reduction in Russian gas imports into Europe.
Oil-linked Russian supply and industrial pricing
Most Serbian industrial customers are expected to continue receiving gas under Serbia’s long-term arrangement with Russia. Bajatović said the pricing formula is linked to oil rather than directly to European hub prices, which provides insulation from short-term gas-market volatility. He added that the effect is expected to stay manageable while crude oil remains below $100 per barrel.
The approach for household tariffs is described as not involving an increase in regulated prices despite higher wholesale costs. The commitment protects consumers but shifts more market risk to Srbijagas and potentially to the state balance sheet. Bajatović said a sustained rise in oil-indexed contract prices without a tariff adjustment would compress the company’s margin unless the difference is covered through cross-subsidies, accumulated liquidity or budget support.
Storage levels and Banatski Dvor expansion
Serbia’s storage position is described as comparatively strong heading into winter. The Banatski Dvor underground facility is approximately 93% full, holding around 482mn cubic metres. Additional Serbian reserves in Hungary are being replenished at 1–1.2mn cubic metres per day.
Expansion of Banatski Dvor is continuing despite delays tied to international sanctions. Six of 12 planned new wells have been drilled, compressor equipment has been procured, and an additional production line is expected to enter construction. After the upgrade, maximum withdrawal capacity is projected to reach 12mn cubic metres a day.
Alternative routes and winter supply outlook
Serbia can also draw on alternative supply routes including Azerbaijan, Greece, Turkey and north-western European markets, though these are currently more expensive than Russian gas. Work is progressing on a Romanian interconnector and on a proposed gas-fired power plant near Niš being developed with Azerbaijan. Bajatović expects Russian deliveries to remain unaffected before 1 January 2028.
Bajatović expressed confidence that the supply agreement will be extended beyond that point. He said the immediate winter position appears secure, but maintaining unchanged household prices would become progressively more expensive if oil stays above $90, if European LNG markets tighten further, or if geopolitical restrictions interfere with existing contractual and payment arrangements.
