Serbia recorded the largest weekly price correction among the Southeast European electricity markets analysed in Week 24. The country’s average day-ahead power price fell by 21.5% to €78.22/MWh, placing Serbia as the second-cheapest market in the regional comparison behind Türkiye. On 17 June, Serbia posted a day-ahead price of €83.87/MWh, the lowest level among the Southeast European markets included in the daily comparison.
Demand growth stays limited while renewables rise sharply
Electricity demand increased only moderately over the week. Serbian consumption rose by 2.0% to 554.08 GWh, which was below the demand growth seen in larger markets such as Italy and Türkiye. Variable renewable generation increased by 76.8% week on week, driven by higher wind and solar output.
The increase in variable renewables added additional low-cost electricity to the system, contributing to downward pressure on wholesale prices. Renewables still represented a relatively limited share of the overall generation mix during the period.
Coal and hydropower movements offset lower prices
Despite lower market prices, Serbia’s generation remained heavily reliant on conventional sources. Coal-fired generation increased by 66.0 GWh, while hydropower production declined by 4.2%. This combination indicated that lignite and coal continued to play a central role in balancing supply as renewable output expanded.
The shift in generation did not change the underlying dependence on thermal balancing for industrial consumers and market participants. Lower electricity prices therefore did not necessarily correspond to lower carbon intensity when thermal generation remained the marginal source of supply.
Imports stable; liquidity remains constrained
Serbia’s net import position showed little change during the week. The price decline therefore appeared to be driven primarily by domestic generation developments and broader regional market convergence rather than a major change in cross-border flows.
Market liquidity remained a structural constraint for trading and hedging activity. Weekly traded volume reached only 120 GWh, compared with 22,300 GWh in Italy, 4,030 GWh in Greece, 2,320 GWh in Bulgaria and 2,090 GWh in Hungary. The comparatively limited trading depth continued to affect options for hedging exposure, optimizing scheduling strategies and securing long-term physical supply arrangements.
