Southeast European power traders are likely to focus on Romania, Hungary and Serbia in the coming sessions after Week 27 showed a clear tightening pattern across the region, supported by higher demand, weaker renewables, softer hydro output and rising import needs.
Romania and Hungary remained the highest-priced markets in the SEE region during the week of 29 June–5 July, averaging EUR 164.31/MWh and EUR 162.04/MWh, respectively. Croatia followed at EUR 142.57/MWh, while Serbia rose 26.3% week on week to EUR 139.93/MWh.
The Serbian move is the clearest short-term trading signal. The country shifted from a marginal net import position of 7 GWh in Week 26 to 90 GWh in Week 27, while the report also pointed to a sharp fall in thermal generation linked to the absence of lignite output during the week. That combination leaves Serbia more exposed to regional import prices and cross-border availability.
The strongest trading setup is therefore concentrated in the Romania-Hungary-Serbia-Croatia corridor, where high outright prices overlap with import pressure and tighter local supply conditions.
Greece and Bulgaria remained lower-priced regional references, averaging EUR 112.81/MWh and EUR 114.61/MWh, respectively, though both were still above the EUR 100/MWh mark. Italy, meanwhile, was the only major SEE market to decline, falling 6.8% to EUR 134.85/MWh.
For traders, the opportunity is not simply a baseload long position across SEE. The more precise signal is peak and evening-block tightness, especially where import demand is rising. The hourly market pattern in the report points to the evening period, around hours 19–22, as the main stress window, when solar generation fades and systems rely more heavily on dispatchable thermal units and imports.
Cross-border flows strengthen the case. Total SEE net imports increased 28.2%, from 972 GWh to 1.25 TWh. Hungary’s net imports rose 157.9% to 202 GWh, Romania’s increased 44.8% to 194 GWh, and Serbia’s import requirement expanded sharply. Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye remained net exporters, but their export balances declined.
Gas also remains a key hedge signal. TTF futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% week on week, and moved above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the week. The one-month TTF contract was trading near EUR 49.045/MWh as the report went to press. With SEE thermal generation up 6.5% on the week, firmer gas prices can amplify peak-power risk.
The Trading Group should therefore run a daily screen built around five signals: RO-HU-Serbia-Croatia spreads, evening peak prices, import flows, TTF/THE gas moves and short-term wind/hydro changes.
The near-term trading bias remains constructive for SEE peak prices unless cooler weather, stronger wind, hydro recovery or improved Serbian thermal availability reduces import pressure.
