The SEE day-ahead market tightened sharply on 8 July, but the move was not uniform. HUPX rose to €128.17/MWh, up €21.3/MWh day on day, while Romania, Croatia and Slovenia effectively converged with Hungary at around €127–128/MWh. The strongest price remained Italy at €146.43/MWh, while the lowest was Serbia at €104.08/MWh, making SEEPEX the clear regional discount market at €24.09/MWh below HUPX.
The core driver was not heat alone. Regional average temperature fell to 20.7°C, down 2.3°C, yet forecast consumption still increased to 32,667 MW, up 768 MW. That suggests the price rebound was driven more by weekday demand normalization, lower solar availability, import dependence and interconnector economics than by a classic cooling-load spike. The renewable signal was mixed but bearish for prices: forecast solar fell by 807 MW to 5,752 MW, while wind improved by 336 MW to 1,517 MW, leaving the system still exposed to the evening and morning scarcity shape.
The market therefore showed a strong “duck-curve” structure. HUPX baseload settled at €128.17/MWh, but the peak block was only €102.2/MWh, while off-peak reached €154.1/MWh. This inversion is important: solar is suppressing the daytime block, while morning and evening residual demand is carrying the value. For batteries, flexible hydro, dispatchable gas and cross-border traders, the value is increasingly in shape management rather than simple baseload exposure.
Flows confirm that SEE remains structurally dependent on north-western supply while simultaneously exporting into higher-priced Italy. The region recorded net imports of 2,352 MW, with imports from the AT+SK core corridor at 3,537 MW. At the same time, SEE exported 1,066 MW to Italy, where the premium over HUPX widened to €18.26/MWh. This is the core trading paradox of the day: the region needs northern imports to balance, but the Adriatic and Italian price signal still pulls power south-west where transmission capacity allows.
Hungary remained the regional anchor. It was a net importer by 1,277 MW, with domestic generation at 3,383 MW against consumption of 4,660 MW. The Hungarian mix remains heavily shaped by Paks nuclear, solar and imports. The price spread to Germany narrowed but stayed material: HUPX was €29.21/MWh above Germany, keeping core-to-Hungary flows commercially attractive despite the day-on-day narrowing.
Serbia was the day’s main outlier. SEEPEX fell by €3.9/MWh to €104.08/MWh while most neighboring markets moved higher. Serbia’s consumption was stable at 3,560 MW, generation stood at 3,136 MW, and the system remained a net importer by 425 MW. Coal still dominated the Serbian mix, with 2,578 MW of coal generation and 693 MW of hydro, while wind was negligible at only 18 MW. The discount versus Hungary, Croatia and Romania points to a market that was locally looser or commercially segmented, but the low price did not translate into a clean export story because cross-border flow patterns were constrained and mixed.
Bulgaria was the strongest exporter in the regional balance. It exported 1,303 MW, supported by generation of 5,129 MW against consumption of 3,826 MW. Nuclear output remained the backbone at roughly 1,886 MW, while solar was still significant. That explains why IBEX at €117.80/MWh stayed below HUPX and Romania despite a €14.8/MWh day-on-day rise. Romania, by contrast, priced almost exactly with Hungary at €127.09/MWh while importing 589 MW, even with nuclear, hydro, gas and solar contributing meaningfully.
Croatia and Slovenia priced close to Hungary because both remained import-dependent. CROPEX reached €127.08/MWh, with Croatia importing 1,064 MW, while BSP Slovenia reached €128.40/MWh, slightly above HUPX, with Slovenia importing 390 MW. Montenegro also rose strongly to €117.54/MWh, up €23.7/MWh, while remaining a net importer by 132 MW despite strong commercial exports toward Italy through the cable. That reinforces Montenegro’s role as a transit and shape market rather than a simple surplus generator.
Forward markets were more nuanced than the spot move. HU Week 29 fell to €130.50/MWh, down €1.5/MWh on the day and down 9.38% over the seven-day screen, while HU Q4 base rose to €145/MWh and HU Cal-27 stood at €114/MWh. This suggests traders are treating the immediate spot rebound as a near-term weather, solar and flow issue, while still preserving a structural premium for winter and forward Hungarian risk. Gas also firmed, with CEGH at €47.39/MWh, while EUA eased to €80.19/t, leaving fuel and carbon inputs supportive but not explosive.
The trading message is clear: SEE is not trading as one uniform bloc. Italy remains the premium sink, Hungary remains the price-setting import hub, Bulgaria remains the strongest exporter, and Serbia remains the discount anomaly. The next sessions will depend less on average temperature and more on hourly solar output, wind recovery, AT/SK import availability, and whether Serbian discount pricing can reconnect through commercial flows or remains trapped behind allocation and system constraints.
