Southeast European electricity markets started the new trading week with a sharp recovery in day-ahead prices on Monday as industrial demand returned after the weekend, regional power consumption increased by almost 3 GW, and renewable generation retreated from Sunday highs. The rebound lifted most regional benchmarks back above €100/MWh, with Hungary once again establishing itself as the pricing leader across Central and Southeast Europe.
The Hungarian HUPX day-ahead contract settled at €116.19/MWh, up more than €71/MWh from Sunday, while Romania’s OPCOM market closed at €115.19/MWh. Croatia reached €111.07/MWh, Slovenia traded at €109.70/MWh, and Bulgaria settled at €104.37/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX remained comparatively discounted at €88.14/MWh, while Albania continued to benefit from abundant hydro availability, closing at just €56.86/MWh.
The return of weekday industrial activity was the dominant market driver. Regional demand rose to 28.5 GW, almost 3 GW higher than Sunday levels, while total generation declined by around 1.7 GW, tightening the supply-demand balance across the interconnected SEE region.
Hydro production fell by approximately 500 MW day-on-day, while solar generation declined by nearly 850 MW as weather conditions became less favourable than during the weekend. Wind output remained subdued at just 582 MW, offering little relief to the evening peak load period. Nuclear generation increased slightly to 4.1 GW, helping offset some of the renewable decline and stabilising the regional generation mix.
The system continues to show increasing diversification, with hydro remaining the largest single source at 5.35 GW, followed by coal at 4.56 GW, solar at 4.58 GW, nuclear at 4.12 GW, and gas-fired generation at 2.98 GW. However, the reduction in solar and hydro output significantly increased the marginal value of thermal generation during the evening ramp period.
Intraday price curves showed a familiar pattern across most regional exchanges. Solar generation continued to suppress midday prices, but values accelerated sharply after sunset. Hungary’s evening peak reached approximately €235/MWh, while similar spikes were observed across Romania, Croatia, Slovenia and Greece, highlighting growing intraday volatility and scarcity pricing dynamics.
Cross-border flows highlighted the continued importance of regional interconnection capacity. Romania remained a major exporter toward Hungary, while Slovenia and Croatia continued to channel electricity toward Italy, where structural import requirements supported premium pricing. Commercial flow data showed sustained exports from Slovenia into Italy averaging more than 500 MW, reinforcing the strategic role of the Adriatic corridor for regional balancing.
Serbia maintained its position as one of the more competitively priced markets in Southeast Europe. The SEEPEX settlement at €88.14/MWh left Serbia trading at discounts exceeding €25/MWh against Hungary and Romania. Strong domestic thermal and hydro availability limited import requirements and reinforced Serbia’s role as both a balancing market and transit hub between Central Europe and the Western Balkans.
Regional fundamentals were further supported by improving hydrological conditions. Danube river flows increased to approximately 6,043 cubic metres per second, significantly above recent lows and supportive for hydro generation across Serbia, Romania and downstream Balkan systems. Improved hydrology continues to moderate upside price risks despite strengthening seasonal demand and growing system flexibility from hydro resources.
Forward markets, however, painted a more cautious picture than spot trading. Hungarian Week 24 baseload contracts traded around €113/MWh, while equivalent German products remained near €107/MWh, leaving a premium of roughly €6–7/MWh for Central and Southeast European delivery. The relatively muted forward response suggests traders still expect renewable output and hydro conditions to cap sustained price increases through June.
Fuel and carbon markets provided little additional bullish support. Austrian CEGH gas futures remained close to €50/MWh, while EU carbon allowances traded around €76.9/tCO₂, extending the recent downward trend in emissions costs. Lower carbon prices continue to improve the competitiveness of coal-fired generation across Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, reducing marginal production costs for thermal assets.
Weather forecasts indicate temperatures will continue rising across most of Southeast Europe during the coming days. Serbia is expected to approach 24°C, while Greece and Montenegro remain near 26°C, supporting increased cooling demand and maintaining pressure on regional power systems during afternoon and evening peak periods, reinforcing seasonal demand-driven volatility.
From a trading perspective, the regional market remains characterised by strong evening scarcity pricing, widening north-south spreads and increasing dependence on cross-border balancing flows. Although improving hydrology and falling carbon prices are providing bearish influences, the combination of recovering demand, limited wind output and continued transmission constraints is supporting a firmer market structure as the summer season approaches.
