On March 23, 2026, the Southeast European (SEE) power markets are witnessing a substantial price surge, with Hungary leading as the premium market at €159.38/MWh. Romania follows closely at €155.42/MWh, while Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia, and Croatia report prices of €151.00/MWh, €147.74/MWh, €154.95/MWh, and €154.81/MWh, respectively. Serbia’s price stands lower at €137.52/MWh, with Albania at €134.17/MWh, North Macedonia at €131.02/MWh, and Montenegro at €124.54/MWh. This indicates a high-price regime across the region, though southern non-EU markets remain significantly discounted compared to the HUPX-led core.
The recent price increases are attributed to a sharp day-on-day rise across the region rather than localized disruptions. The HUPX market has surged by €65.9/MWh, while Romania, Bulgaria, Greece, Slovenia, Croatia, and Serbia have seen increases of €65.3/MWh, €60.9/MWh, €63.0/MWh, €60.5/MWh, €61.1/MWh, and €52.5/MWh, respectively. Notably, Serbia’s price remains approximately €21.86/MWh below Hungary’s level, indicating participation in the broader rally without full convergence with the central pricing hub.
The underlying fundamentals reveal a tighter balance in the region today, with forecast consumption for SEE plus Hungary reaching 34,235 MW, an increase of 3,093 MW from the previous day. Conversely, total generation has decreased to 32,049 MW, down by 2,410 MW. This combination highlights rising demand as supply diminishes; net imports are negative at -462 MW, suggesting that while the region remains a net exporter overall, its export position has narrowed significantly compared to previous days.
A critical factor affecting supply is the decline in renewable energy generation, particularly wind power. Forecast wind capacity is estimated at 2,951 MW, down by 852 MWfrom yesterday’s figures; actual wind generation shows a decrease to 3,803 MW —a drop of 1,000 MW day-on-day. Hydro generation has also weakened to 5,870 MW and solar output stands at only 2,986 MW despite forecasts suggesting a potential contribution of up to 3,540 MW.
This decline in renewable energy forces greater reliance on thermal plants to meet rising demand; current coal output is reported at 7,229 MW and gas generation at 5,017 MW while nuclear power remains stable at 5,839 MW.
The cross-border electricity flows are also significant; imports into the region amount to approximately 1,592 MW from core markets—a rise of 339 MW from the previous day—while the HU-DE day-ahead spread has widened to €17.46/MWh. This positive spread typically supports increased imports from Germany into Hungary and subsequently into SEE markets where transmission allows it.
In Serbia specifically, SEEPEX prices are currently set at €137.52 /MWh indicating resilience despite being lower than neighboring countries such as Hungary and Romania.
The intraday price structure suggests an evening peak demand pattern rather than an all-day scarcity situation; maximum prices across various exchanges peak around hours 19 or 20 while minimums tend to occur around hour 13 due to midday solar contributions fading in intensity later in the day.
The forward fuel market conditions remain supportive but do not directly drive today’s price movements; CEGH gas is priced at €61.43 /MWh with EUA trading at €67.66/t while coal forwards remain elevated.
This bullish reset for the SEE market reflects tighter physical balances coupled with weaker renewable support as it enters Monday’s trading session.
