The regional SEE day-ahead power market experienced a sharp correction following the previous heat-driven price spike, but the underlying structure remained far from weak. HUPX fell to €100.96/MWh, down €36/MWh day on day, while SEEPEX Serbia settled at €104.92/MWh, a decline of €32.5/MWh. Romania remained relatively firm at €108.96/MWh, Albania traded higher at €112.91/MWh, while Slovenia and Croatia were weaker at €86.42/MWh and €91.45/MWh respectively. Italy continued to stand out as the regional premium market, printing €139.37/MWh, only marginally lower by €2.7/MWh day on day. Germany remained the clear low-price anchor at €59.54/MWh, reinforcing the Core-to-SEE and SEE-to-Italy trade logic.
The key signal from the session is not simply that prices declined, but that the regional pricing structure became more spread-driven and more fragmented. The HU–DE spread narrowed to €41.42/MWh, yet remained wide enough to sustain import flows from the Core into Hungary and Slovenia. At the same time, the HU–GR spread effectively converged at -€0.95/MWh, indicating near parity between Hungary and Greece. Meanwhile, Italy maintained a structural premium of roughly €38/MWh over HUPX, preserving strong cross-border arbitrage incentives where transmission capacity allows, particularly during evening scarcity hours.
The physical balance softened across the region. Total consumption declined to 32,895 MW, down 583 MW day on day, while net imports fell to 2,835 MW, a reduction of 747 MW. Despite the easing, imports still accounted for approximately 11% of regional demand, confirming continued reliance on external supply. On the generation side, the system showed a mixed adjustment: hydro declined by 890 MW, gas by 901 MW, and solar by 814 MW, while coal remained stable at 6,064 MW and wind improved modestly to 1,777 MW. The overall mix suggests a defensive adjustment driven more by lower demand and external price easing than by a strong internal supply rebound.
Country-level balances highlight persistent structural stress. Romania remained heavily import-dependent at 1,533 MW, with generation of 4,593 MW against consumption of 6,126 MW. Hungary imported 1,210 MW, while producing 3,490 MW for a 4,700 MW load. Serbia also stayed in deficit at 438 MW, with generation of 3,046 MW versus consumption of 3,484 MW. In contrast, Bulgaria exported 909 MW, supported by nuclear and solar output, and Bosnia and Herzegovina exported 553 MW. Greece shifted into a modest import position of 326 MW, despite strong solar and gas generation, reflecting sustained demand pressure at 7,397 MW.
The hourly structure remains a critical trading driver. HUPX ranged from €9.6/MWh at hour 14 to €204.3/MWh at hour 19, confirming strong midday oversupply and pronounced evening scarcity. Serbia showed a similar but slightly flatter profile, ranging from €46/MWh to €175/MWh, also peaking in the evening. Germany and Austria experienced deep solar-driven depressions, with Germany even printing negative prices (-€5/MWh). In contrast, Italy maintained a high price floor of €117.3/MWh, with a peak of €170.2/MWh, reinforcing its role as the structural scarcity premium market in the region. The dominant commercial signal remains concentrated in evening ramp exposure rather than daily averages.
Flow patterns confirm the corridor-driven structure of the market. The region remained a net importer from the Core, with AT+SK → HU+SI flows at 3,797 MW, while simultaneously exporting 418 MW toward Italy and 554 MW toward Ukraine/Moldova. Internal Balkan flows also shifted, with North Macedonia, Albania and Bulgaria exporting 434 MW toward Greece, indicating a rebalancing after earlier Greek export strength. The result is a clear corridor structure: low-cost Core electricity flows into Hungary and Slovenia, SEE balances Romania, Serbia and Greece, while Italy continues to act as the premium demand sink.
Forward markets, however, did not fully align with the spot correction. HU Week 28 traded at €111/MWh, while HU Week 29 rose to €146.5/MWh, up €5.5/MWh day on day and more than 22% over seven days. This divergence signals that the spot decline is being interpreted as weather- and flow-driven rather than structural. Gas remained elevated, with CEGH at €45.10/MWh, while EUAs held near €79.45/t, keeping thermal marginal costs firmly in focus for forward pricing.
For Serbia, the signal is mixed but structurally important. SEEPEX at €104.92/MWh remained above Hungary but below Italy, while Serbia stayed in a 438 MW import position. The generation mix remained heavily coal-based, at roughly 76% coal, 20% hydro and 4% wind, reinforcing the system’s reliance on thermal flexibility. Although Serbia’s short position was smaller than Romania’s or Hungary’s, it was sufficient to keep SEEPEX aligned with the broader Balkan pricing cluster rather than the lower Core European zone. For investors in Serbian wind, solar and BESS assets, the day reinforces the importance of flexibility value, evening capture and balancing exposure, rather than pure baseload merchant assumptions.
Overall, 3 July represents a correction day rather than a bearish regime shift. Prices fell sharply across SEE and Hungary, but structural signals remained intact: import dependency persists, Italy remains a premium price anchor, evening scarcity continues to dominate hourly spreads, and forward curves remain strongly supported. The combination of spot weakness and forward strength keeps volatility, cross-border optionality and storage value firmly embedded in the market structure.
