Russian natural gas accounts for roughly 12% of EU gas consumption, indicating that the bloc’s gradual phase-out approach has so far had only limited effects on actual import volumes. The REPower Gas Regulation entered into force on 18 March 2026, introducing a staged ban on Russian gas imports. Final restrictions are scheduled for November 2027.
Under the regulation, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) is tasked with monitoring implementation. ACER will produce reports covering import contracts, transit flows, and supply diversification. The monitoring framework is designed to track how restrictions are applied across different supply routes.
Member states’ continued reliance on pipeline and LNG
ACER reports that several EU member states still depend on Russian pipeline gas through long-term agreements. Hungary, Slovakia, and Greece are cited as remaining supplied under contracts estimated at 16–26 bcm annually. At the same time, Russian LNG continues to reach the EU via terminals in Spain, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands.
Contract volumes for Russian LNG are estimated at 20–32 bcm per year, according to ACER. The agency also notes that the EU’s highly integrated gas network complicates assessment of end-use locations. Gas imported into one member state can be re-exported and consumed elsewhere within the bloc.
No clear decline in 2026 import flows
Import data reviewed by ACER show no clear downward trend to date. Between January and May 2026, pipeline imports from Russia rose by 7% year-on-year, while LNG imports increased by 11%. These figures indicate continued elevated inflows during the early period of implementation.
In the post-regulation period, LNG inflows were up 17% year-on-year through May. This increase occurred despite tighter restrictions on short-term LNG contracts introduced in April. Over the same post-regulation window, pipeline imports also rose by 5%.
ACER links LNG changes to delivery and contracting factors
ACER attributes the higher LNG volumes to multiple drivers identified in its monitoring. These include front-loading of deliveries ahead of stricter rules and contractual adjustments made in response to changing conditions. The agency also points to continued transshipment flows already in place before the new measures.
Broader geopolitical developments are also cited as influencing purchasing patterns and supply routes for Russian gas into the EU. In addition, ACER records limited direct effects from the new framework so far. One exception was a 65% drop in Russian pipeline flows through the Strandzha 1 interconnection at the Turkey–Bulgaria border after 18 March .
Further restrictions expected to tighten supply in 2027
ACER expects the regulation’s impact to become more pronounced once remaining pipeline and LNG restrictions take effect in 2027. The agency says it is still too early to assess the full effectiveness of the phase-out policy. A comprehensive evaluation is planned for inclusion in its 2027 monitoring report.
The monitoring approach therefore focuses on contract coverage, transit movements, and supply diversification as implementation progresses toward November 2027 . This reporting structure is intended to capture how restrictions change actual flows across EU entry points and interconnections over time.
