Southeast European power markets decoupled from northwest Europe in Week 27, with SEE prices rising across most monitored markets while northwest European prices fell on cooler weather and stronger wind generation.
The regional split was clear. In SEE, Romania averaged EUR 164.31/MWh, Hungary EUR 162.04/MWh, Croatia EUR 142.57/MWh, Serbia EUR 139.93/MWh, Italy EUR 134.85/MWh, Bulgaria EUR 114.61/MWh and Greece EUR 112.81/MWh. Türkiye remained the lowest-priced monitored SEE market at EUR 47.36/MWh, despite a sharp weekly rise from a low base.
Northwest Europe moved in the opposite direction. France posted the steepest weekly decline, falling 32.1% to EUR 78.60/MWh, while Spain and Portugal fell by around 27.7% to roughly EUR 63.20/MWh. Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Slovakia, Poland, the Netherlands, Austria and the Czech Republic also recorded significant declines.
The divergence was driven by different fundamentals. Northwest Europe benefited from cooler weather after the late-June heat wave and stronger wind output. SEE, by contrast, saw demand rise while renewables and hydro weakened.
SEE electricity demand increased 2.1%, while variable renewable output fell 3.3% and hydropower generation declined 3.4%. Thermal generation rose 6.5%, increasing the role of lignite, coal and gas-fired plants in regional price formation.
The split creates an important market-trend signal: SEE should not be analysed simply as an extension of northwest Europe. It has its own balance of demand, generation, hydro conditions, thermal availability and cross-border constraints.
The divergence also creates relative-value opportunities. If northwest Europe remains well supplied while SEE stays tight, spreads between SEE premium markets and western references may remain supported. But the signal could reverse if cooler weather reaches SEE, wind output improves or hydro production recovers.
Gas remains a key overlay. TTF futures rose 5.5% week on week to average EUR 43.59/MWh, adding support to SEE prices at a time when the region relied more heavily on thermal generation.
SEE is trading as a separate tightening zone. The divergence from northwest Europe should remain a core weekly tracker, with demand, wind, hydro, thermal output, gas and cross-border flows as the main continuation or reversal signals.
