SEE day-ahead electricity prices surged for delivery on 23 June, with Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, and Croatia converging toward Central European levels as markets repriced a steep evening residual-load ramp. In contrast, Serbia and Albania remained significantly discounted, highlighting a widening regional split in price formation.
Hungary’s day-ahead baseload on HUPX settled at €173.04/MWh, rising €47.6/MWh day-on-day. Romania’s OPCOM closely followed at €172.88/MWh, up €48.8/MWh. Slovenia (BSP) cleared at €169.63/MWh, while Croatia (CROPEX) settled at €170.37/MWh. This brought the northern SEE cluster close to Germany (€174.91/MWh) and Austria (€169.46/MWh), with Italy lower at €153.83/MWh.
Further south, prices decoupled sharply. Serbia’s SEEPEX cleared at €93.36/MWh, while Albania’s ALPEX stood at €93.48/MWh. Montenegro’s BELEN settled at €115.30/MWh, and North Macedonia’s MEMO dropped to €105.96/MWh. The Serbia–Hungary spread widened to nearly €80/MWh, reinforcing Serbia’s position as the main discount node in the region.
Importantly, the price surge was not driven by a broad supply shortage. Regional demand reached 31,785 MW, while total generation increased across all key technologies: hydro, solar, gas, coal, wind, and nuclear. The system therefore had sufficient energy overall, but pricing concentrated around evening scarcity conditions rather than average supply tightness.
The key driver was the intraday price structure. Prices collapsed during the midday solar peak but spiked sharply in the evening when residual demand had to be met by flexible generation. Maximum hourly prices reached €496.1/MWh in Hungary, €545.5/MWh in Germany, €493.0/MWh in Romania, €478.3/MWh in Slovenia, €481.8/MWh in Croatia, and €488.7/MWh in Austria. Peaks were concentrated around hours 21–22, while midday lows formed around hour 14, at roughly €62–63/MWh across most markets.
This pronounced daily shape is increasingly defining SEE power markets: low midday prices driven by solar oversupply, followed by extreme evening premiums driven by flexibility scarcity. The resulting spread strengthens the economic case for batteries, pumped storage, and dispatchable hydro, all of which can shift energy from midday surplus into evening peak demand.
Cross-border flows reflected a fragmented regional balance. The SEE–Hungary block was broadly flat at -146 MW net import, while CORE imports into the region dropped sharply. Greece emerged as a notable exporter (~1,405 MW), while Croatia, Romania, and Serbia remained net importers, highlighting uneven regional power balance dynamics.
Forward markets did not fully reflect the spot spike. Hungarian Week 27 power remained unchanged at €135.50/MWh, while Week 28 and July 2026 eased slightly. The curve therefore treated the move as a short-term scarcity event rather than a structural repricing. Gas benchmarks were firmer, while EU carbon rose to €81.57/tCO₂, and coal forwards remained broadly stable.
For Serbia, the pricing divergence is commercially significant. SEEPEX remained nearly €80/MWh below HUPX and OPCOM, creating a strong theoretical export arbitrage signal, constrained by interconnection capacity and cross-border scheduling limits. This persistent spread underscores the value of transmission rights and grid access in an incomplete convergence market.
The same structure reinforces investment signals for flexibility. Serbia’s planned 650 MW Bistrica pumped-storage hydropower project, currently in financing discussions with JICA, aligns directly with the observed price volatility pattern. Montenegro’s grid expansion around Perućica and Pljevlja also points toward increased system flexibility and renewable integration capacity.
Weather remains a key near-term driver. Temperatures across SEE are expected to rise from 24.5°C to 26.3°C, with Serbia approaching 27°C and Montenegro near 30°C. This supports cooling demand, while preserving the evening ramp risk, especially if wind output weakens or cross-border imports tighten.
Overall, the 23 June session highlights a clear structural shift: SEE is no longer a single unified market. Instead, it is splitting into a Central European-aligned northern cluster and a deeply discounted southern zone. The resulting arbitrage opportunity is visible—but its capture depends on grid capacity, flexibility assets, and cross-border access.
