In a significant shift in the energy landscape, Russian natural gas deliveries to European markets have dramatically decreased by approximately 44% in 2025 compared to the previous year, marking their lowest level since the mid-1970s. This decline has been largely attributed to the cessation of the Ukrainian transit corridor in January and the European Union’s intensified efforts to eliminate reliance on Russian fossil fuels.
This year, the EU has made a formal commitment to cease purchasing Russian gas by the end of 2027. This decision is part of a broader initiative aimed at dismantling decades of energy dependence on Russia and reducing revenue streams that could potentially finance ongoing military activities in Ukraine. Historically, Europe has been a critical revenue source for Russia, supported by extensive pipeline infrastructure established during the Soviet era.
During peak years in 2018 and 2019, Russian gas exports to Europe surpassed 175 billion cubic meters annually, generating substantial income for Gazprom and the Russian government. However, projections for 2025 indicate that Gazprom’s exports will fall to just 18 billion cubic meters, with all deliveries funneled through the TurkStream pipeline—levels not seen for over half a century.
The TurkStream pipeline now represents Russia’s sole remaining conduit into Europe following Ukraine’s refusal to extend its five-year transit agreement that lapsed at the beginning of this year. Countries such as Serbia, Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey continue to receive significant volumes through this route, with Turkey remaining one of Gazprom’s largest customers.
Despite this steep decline in pipeline exports, Russia maintains its position as the EU’s second-largest supplier of liquefied natural gas (LNG), following the United States. This shift underscores how LNG has begun to partially compensate for lost pipeline supplies.
Current data indicates ongoing volatility rather than a recovery in gas flows. In December alone, gas deliveries via TurkStream increased by nearly 13% year-on-year, averaging about 56 million cubic meters per day, which is also a slight rise from November figures. Over the entire year, TurkStream exports rose by around 7% to reach approximately 16.8 billion cubic meters, while Gazprom’s annual deliveries to Turkey remain close to 20 billion cubic meters.
