In the final week of January, electricity prices across numerous European markets experienced a modest uptick compared to the latter half of the previous week. This trend led to an increase in weekly average prices in most major markets, with notable exceptions including the IPEX market in Italy and the MIBEL market, which encompasses Spain and Portugal. These markets recorded significant declines of 4.7%, 64%, and 73%, respectively. Conversely, the EPEX SPOT market in France observed the most substantial percentage rise at 8.5%. Other regions reported weekly price increases ranging from 1.2% in Germany to 7.8% in Belgium, as indicated by analysis from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
During the week concluding on January 26, most markets saw weekly average prices surpassing €110/MWh. The Portuguese and Spanish markets stood out as exceptions, with averages of €17.25/MWh and €23.03/MWh, respectively. The Italian market recorded the highest weekly average at €140.74/MWh, while prices in France and Germany ranged from €111.50/MWh to €123.31/MWh.
Daily price trends reflected similar patterns, with most markets reporting levels above €90/MWh throughout the last week of January. The MIBEL market continued to diverge from this trend, maintaining daily prices below €40/MWh. Notably, on February 1, Portugal’s market hit a record low for daily averages at €1.04/MWh—its lowest since April 9, 2024—while Spain’s market registered a low of €5.57/MWh on January 31, marking its lowest since May 24, 2025.
The Nord Pool market in the Nordic region and several others including Germany, Belgium, Italy, and the Netherlands experienced daily prices exceeding €130/MWh during various sessions. In Italy specifically, daily prices exceeded €145/MWh for the first four days of that week, culminating in a peak daily average of €150.97/MWh on January 27.
The recent surge in electricity prices can be attributed to rising gas prices, increased demand for energy, and diminished solar energy production across many regions during this period. Additionally, reduced wind energy production in France contributed to price hikes there as well. However, lower demand levels in Spain and Portugal have led to declines within the MIBEL market context. Meanwhile, an increase in wind energy generation was observed in Portugal alongside steady wind production and enhanced hydroelectric output in Spain; these factors collectively helped to lower prices in Italy due to higher contributions from both winds and solar generation.
Ahead of February’s onset, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting anticipates a decline in electricity prices across most major European markets during the first week driven by anticipated increases in wind and solar production, coupled with lower demand levels observed in certain areas. On the other hand, decreased wind output expected in Portugal may exert upward pressure on that specific market’s pricing.
