On March 25, power prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary experienced a significant decline as day-ahead markets retreated from earlier highs. The drop was primarily attributed to a notable increase in wind generation coupled with softer demand, leading to an oversupply situation in the system.
Benchmark contracts reflected this trend, with Hungary’s HUPX clearing at €107.6/MWh, down €16.7 from the previous day. Romania’s OPCOM reported a drop to €96.9/MWh, down €17.8, while Bulgaria’s IBEX fell to €87.3/MWh, down €23.3. Greece’s HENEX decreased to €78.9/MWh, down €30.1, and Serbia’s SEEPEX saw one of the largest corrections, falling sharply to €71.7/MWh, down €41.4.
This synchronized decline across the markets indicates a broad regional repricing rather than isolated local factors, tightening price convergence toward a range of €70–110/MWh.
A sharp increase in renewable generation, particularly from wind, was the primary driver behind these market changes. Wind output surged to 4,062 MW, an increase of 1,427 MW day on day, significantly altering the merit order and displacing thermal generation sources. Concurrently, gas-fired generation dropped to 5,680 MW (down 1,035 MW), diminishing its influence as the marginal price-setting technology.
While solar generation dipped slightly to 3,436 MW (down 122 MW), the overall contribution from renewables increased due to wind strength. This shift compressed peak prices and flattened intraday spreads, particularly noticeable in Central Eastern and Balkan markets.
The decline in demand also contributed to bearish market conditions; total consumption fell to 32,902 MW (down 1,600 MW day on day). Milder temperatures across the region averaged around 10–11°C, leading to reduced heating demand which combined with higher wind output created a dual impact on pricing.
The adjustment in cross-border flows reflected enhanced regional supply adequacy as net imports decreased to -550 MW (down 425 MW). Core imports from Austria and Slovakia into the region also fell to 1,940 MW (down 172 MW), indicating reduced reliance on higher-priced Central European markets.
The spread between Hungary and Germany widened to approximately €69.9/MWh, underscoring ongoing structural divergence between Central Western and Southeast European markets due to congestion and varying generation mixes.
Gas prices showed slight easing with the Austrian CEGH benchmark at €55.5/MWh (day-on-day decrease), while Greek hub levels stood at €44.3/MWh (down). However, gas’s influence on power pricing significantly weakened as gas-fired generation was displaced by wind output.
The intraday price profiles revealed continued volatility despite lower average prices; peak hourly prices exceeded €180–260/MWh, while minimum prices approached near-zero levels in some zones closely linked to Central European flows.
The regional generation mix on March 25 illustrated a transitional system: coal accounted for 22%, hydro for 21%, nuclear for 18%, gas for 17%, wind for 12%, and solar for 10%. The rapid rise in wind output relative to gas emphasizes a shift toward more volatile price formation driven by intermittent renewable energy sources.
Cross-border commercial flows remained dynamic with Romania exporting electricity toward Hungary and Greece while Bulgaria supplied Serbia and Greece, showcasing active multi-directional balancing across interconnected Southeast European markets.
The near-term outlook appears bearish contingent upon renewable output levels. Should wind generation remain elevated alongside demand staying below approximately 34 GW, day-ahead prices could stabilize within a range of €65–100/MWh across core Southeast European markets.
This evolving market structure increasingly reflects a transition from fuel-driven pricing mechanisms toward dynamics influenced by weather patterns where renewable variability plays a pivotal role in shaping short-term price directions.
