Hungary’s nuclear availability has improved as output from the Paks plant returns following cooling-water restrictions. This helped reduce the HUPX daily average from €151.44/MWh for 11 August to about €123.20/MWh for 12 August.
The improvement did not eliminate the evening premium. HUPX still reached €264.90/MWh, while the daily minimum fell below €37/MWh. Hungary’s price shape is therefore becoming more valuable to storage even as the baseload softens.
Hungary remains one of the region’s largest structural importers. Recent demand reached almost 5,000 MW, against domestic generation below 3,000 MW, leaving average import requirements around 2 GW. Slovakia, Austria and Romania normally provide much of the balance.
Romania’s nuclear uncertainty weakens one of those supply routes. Austria and Slovakia are also exposed to conditions in the wider Core market. Germany’s weak wind and France’s heat-related nuclear restrictions reduce the low-cost electricity that can move eastwards.
Hungarian batteries can absorb midday solar and support the evening ramp, but grid congestion determines whether flexibility is located where it is needed. A battery connected behind a constrained distribution node may have limited ability to serve national scarcity despite the attractive wholesale spread.
The HUPX curve also reinforces the value of Serbia–Hungary interconnection capacity. Recent daily auction prices in the Serbian export direction have averaged approximately €6.95/MWh, reflecting competition for access to the higher-priced Hungarian market. Rights become particularly valuable during hours when Serbian thermal or wind generation remains available while Hungary is short.
