In the week of December 23, Brent crude oil futures on the ICE market saw an increase, closing on Friday, December 27, at $74.17 per barrel, marking a 1.7% rise from the previous week’s closing price. This price hike was largely driven by a larger-than-expected reduction in US oil reserves, which helped bolster oil prices during the fourth week of December. Looking ahead to 2025, oil market dynamics will be influenced by geopolitical tensions, including the US-China trade war and the uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s stance on tightening sanctions against Iran. At the same time, the International Energy Agency forecasts a surplus in the global oil market by 2025, driven by production increases from countries like the United States and Brazil. Meanwhile, China’s shift toward electric mobility is expected to reduce its demand for crude oil.
Natural gas prices also saw an upward trend in the same week, with TTF gas futures for the Front-Month on the ICE market closing on Friday, December 27, at €47.73 per MWh, an 8.2% increase from the previous week’s price. This rise was partly due to concerns over the potential suspension of natural gas supplies from Russia to Europe after the expiration of the agreement between Russia and Ukraine on January 1. Additionally, European gas reserves have fallen below 74%, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, adding further upward pressure on gas prices as winter approaches.
The price of CO2 emission allowance futures on the EEX market also continued to climb in the fourth week of December, mirroring the trends in gas prices. On Friday, December 27, the December 2025 benchmark contract closed at €71.57 per ton, a 4.9% increase from the previous week’s price, reflecting a broader market shift, AleaSoft reports.
