In the first week of May, energy markets experienced notable fluctuations, particularly in oil and gas prices, driven by geopolitical dynamics and market sentiment. Brent crude oil futures for the ICE Front Month contract reached a peak settlement price of $114.44 per barrel on May 4. However, this was followed by a downward trend, with prices dropping to a low of $100.06 per barrel on May 7 before closing the week at $101.29 per barrel on May 8. This closing price represented a decline of 6.4% compared to the previous week.
The price movements were largely influenced by expectations surrounding a potential agreement between the United States and Iran, which contributed to bearish sentiment in the market. While geopolitical tensions intermittently provided upward pressure on prices, the overarching anticipation of improved diplomatic relations overshadowed these effects.
Similarly, in the European gas market, TTF gas futures for the ICE Front Month contract mirrored these trends. Prices peaked at €48.14 per MWh on May 4 but fell to €43.56 per MWh by May 7. A modest recovery brought prices up to €44.14 per MWh by the end of the week; nonetheless, this represented a 3.5% decrease from the prior week’s close.
Expectations of an easing in global supply concerns due to potential US–Iran negotiations were also seen as factors exerting downward pressure on gas prices. The possibility of reopening critical shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz could improve market sentiment regarding future liquefied natural gas (LNG) flows.
In contrast to oil and gas markets, CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market exhibited an upward trajectory during this period. Starting at a low of €73.06 per ton on May 4, prices increased throughout the week, reaching a peak of €76.07 per ton on May 6 before settling at €75.20 per ton on May 8—a rise of 1.9% from the previous week’s closing level.
The overall energy commodity landscape during early May reflected a mixed macroeconomic environment, where expectations for geopolitical de-escalation weighed heavily on oil and gas prices while carbon markets remained resilient amid ongoing structural pressures from EU emissions policies.
