The last week of April witnessed significant fluctuations in the oil and gas markets, driven primarily by geopolitical developments and supply dynamics. Brent crude oil futures on the ICE market peaked at $118.03/bbl on April 29, marking the highest price since early April. However, this upward trend reversed shortly thereafter, with prices dropping to a weekly low of $108.17/bbl on May 1. Despite this decline, the closing price was still 2.7% higher than the previous week’s figures.
Geopolitical tensions, particularly relating to the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, have heavily influenced market sentiment. Concurrently, OPEC+ announced plans to increase production in June, despite the exit of the United Arab Emirates from the organization on May 1. This development has raised concerns about supply stability in the Persian Gulf region amid persistent geopolitical uncertainties.
In parallel, TTF natural gas futures also exhibited notable volatility during this period. The market opened with a downward trend that saw prices dip to a weekly low of €43.59/MWh on April 28. A sharp rebound followed, with prices surging by 7.5% to reach a high of €46.85/MWh on April 29. By week’s end, prices settled slightly above €45/MWh, closing at €45.77/MWh, reflecting a 2.0% increase from the previous Friday.
The gas markets have been underpinned by geopolitical risks linked to the US–Iran situation, compounded by European gas storage levels remaining below 35%. This combination of factors continues to exert upward pressure on prices as market participants navigate uncertainty.
Additionally, CO₂ emission allowance futures for December 2026 predominantly traded below €75/t. The peak for this period was noted at €75.13/t on April 28, followed by a decline to a weekly low of €73.22/t on April 29. A slight recovery brought prices back up to €73.80/t on April 30, yet this still represented a decrease of 1.5% compared to the previous week’s closing figures, indicating moderate downward pressure within the carbon market.
This volatile landscape highlights the intricate interplay between geopolitical events and energy markets as stakeholders adjust strategies in response to evolving conditions.
