The energy implications of the Russian-Ukrainian war have escalated sharply in recent weeks as Ukraine’s gas infrastructure suffers extensive damage. A new analysis by the Oeconomus Economic Research Foundation shows that nearly half of Ukraine’s imported gas now enters the country through Hungary, significantly reshaping regional patterns of energy dependence.
Before 2025, Russian attacks mainly targeted western Ukrainian sites, including the large underground storage facilities in Lviv region where European traders had previously kept around 10 billion cubic meters of gas. However, after Ukraine stopped the transit of Russian gas at the beginning of 2025, Moscow intensified its strikes on critical energy infrastructure across the country. As a result, international traders withdrew from Ukraine’s storage system, leaving state-owned and domestic companies as the primary users.
Although Ukraine holds substantial gas reserves and has historically been able to meet its annual consumption needs, wartime disruptions have repeatedly impeded operations. These interruptions slow down storage injections and widen the country’s supply gap, forcing it to rely more heavily on imported volumes that now cover 20–30% of national demand. Hungary has emerged as Ukraine’s main external supplier, with gas deliveries sharply increasing in recent years. By 2025, imports via Hungary are expected to account for 46% of Ukraine’s total gas imports. Shipments from Hungary rose from around 500 million cubic meters in 2022 (about 2.5% of consumption) to 2.5 billion cubic meters in the first ten months of 2025, equivalent to roughly 14% of expected annual demand.
The gas transiting through Hungary is not produced locally. Instead, Hungary functions as a key transit corridor for volumes purchased by European and Hungarian traders—including MET Group—which often include, but are not limited to, Russian-origin gas. The Hungarian route has become Ukraine’s most cost-effective option, with transmission fees of just 2.5–3 euros per MWh. Even though more than half of these imports are based on day-ahead capacity bookings, which are typically more expensive, routing gas through Hungary remains significantly cheaper than alternatives.
Some of the volumes entering Ukraine via Hungary are further transported to Moldova and ultimately to Transnistria. Not all gas flows directly; part of it is injected into Ukrainian storage and later withdrawn when required. Since February alone, MET has delivered at least 180 million cubic meters—covering around 10% of Transnistria’s annual consumption.
Ironically, Ukraine’s largest potential import route is not through Hungary but through its border with Slovakia. That pipeline can move up to 42 million cubic meters per day—more than 1.2 billion cubic meters per month. However, it is also the most expensive route, with transmission tariffs of about 7 euros per MWh. Hungary offers the second-largest import capacity at 9.75 million cubic meters per day, followed by Poland with six million. With fees on par with Poland’s but far below Slovakia’s, and with broader sourcing possibilities, Hungary has become strategically indispensable for Ukraine’s gas supply during wartime.
