In Southeast Europe, thermal power generation experienced a notable downturn during calendar week 13, primarily driven by a significant decline in gas-fired electricity production. The shift towards renewable and hydroelectric generation has led to an increase in their output, which has effectively displaced gas units from the dispatch order.
Overall, thermal generation across the region fell by 7.24%, with gas-fired generation plummeting by 12.78%. This reduction is indicative of changing market dynamics where improved renewable energy availability coincides with lower demand in several markets, pushing gas units out of the merit order.
Italy reported the most considerable decrease, with thermal output dropping by 24.75%, reflecting over a 26% decline in gas-fired generation. Hungary also faced a significant reduction of 24.58%, while Serbia experienced an even sharper contraction of 48.71%, largely attributed to diminished lignite generation.
The reduced contribution from gas-fired plants is particularly striking given their role as the marginal price-setting fuel within many Southeast European markets. As renewable and hydro sources increase their share of generation, gas plants are often sidelined, leading to overall lower production levels.
Conversely, coal and lignite generation remained relatively stable, with only a slight decline of 0.66%. This stability suggests that these traditional fuel sources continue to play an essential role in maintaining supply levels, especially in regions where domestic coal reserves are significant.
<pInterestingly, some countries bucked the trend of declining thermal output. Bulgaria and Türkiye saw increases in their thermal generation figures, with Türkiye notably ramping up both coal and gas production to meet rising electricity demand.
This data highlights the transitional phase of power systems across Southeast Europe. While renewables are increasingly displacing gas during specific periods, traditional thermal sources—particularly coal—remain vital components of the energy mix.
From a market perspective, the decrease in gas-fired generation has contributed to slight price reductions observed throughout the week. Nonetheless, as gas continues to be the marginal fuel during peak demand periods, its influence on pricing mechanisms remains substantial.
