European gas prices remained range-bound in Week 24, with volatility visible during the week but no sustained breakout. TTF futures averaged €49.00/MWh, up 0.9% from the previous week. The market reached a weekly high of €49.99/MWh before falling sharply to €46.77/MWh by Friday.
The late-week correction followed easing concern over potential disruption to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, as political signals around Washington-Tehran negotiations reduced immediate risk pricing. Even so, the weekly average remained slightly higher, reflecting continued concern over summer gas demand, storage refill requirements and global LNG competition.
The one-month TTF forward was quoted at €41.180/MWh, equal to $13.99/MMBtu. Henry Hub was trading at $3.24/MMBtu, or €9.54/MWh, while the JKM futures price stood at $15.940/MMBtu on June 16. The gap between US gas and Asian LNG pricing continues to define Europe’s competitive challenge for flexible cargoes.
The physical flow data showed a mixed regional picture. Greek LNG inflows fell sharply to 603.87 GWh, down 29.8% week on week. Croatia’s LNG inflows were almost unchanged at 640.83 GWh, down 0.7%. Italy moved in the opposite direction, with LNG flows rising 34.11% to 3,803.52 GWh.
The European gas market is therefore stable only on the surface. Prices are not breaking higher, but the LNG procurement environment is tightening ahead of winter. Storage refill needs, lower Russian pipeline availability and competition from Asian buyers will keep regional price signals sensitive. The market is not short of gas today, but it is already pricing the value of security for the next heating season.
