In the second week of December, average electricity prices fell in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The notable exception was the MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal, which recorded a 27% increase. Among the declines, the EPEX SPOT market of France saw the smallest drop at 2.7%, while the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries experienced the largest fall at 21%. Other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting saw decreases ranging from 8.9% in Belgium to 19% in Germany.
Weekly average prices during this period remained below €85/MWh in most European markets. Exceptions included the Netherlands (€85.20/MWh), Germany (€90.11/MWh), and Italy (€112.49/MWh). The lowest weekly averages were registered in the Nordic market (€58.18/MWh) and France (€62.91/MWh). Other markets reported averages between €76.88/MWh in the UK’s N2EX market and €83.24/MWh in Belgium.
On daily prices, Tuesday, December 9, saw the French market reach the lowest average of the week at €28.79/MWh, the only daily price below €30/MWh during the period. Conversely, most markets experienced prices above €100/MWh in at least one session, except for the UK, France, and the Nordic countries. In Italy’s IPEX market, daily prices exceeded €105/MWh throughout the week, peaking at €119.09/MWh on December 10, the highest daily average of the period.
Several factors contributed to these price movements. The decline in weekly gas prices combined with lower electricity demand in most markets helped push prices down. Additionally, solar energy production increased in Germany, France, and Italy, and wind energy production rose in Germany, supporting supply. By contrast, in the Iberian Peninsula, declines in both wind and solar generation contributed to higher prices in Spain and Portugal.
Looking ahead, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting predicts that in the third week of December, electricity prices will rise across major European markets, driven by increased demand. At the same time, wind energy production is expected to decline in Germany and Portugal, while solar energy production will decrease in Spain and Italy, adding upward pressure to market prices, AleaSoft reports.
