During the first week of December 2024, electricity demand saw an uptick across most major European markets compared to the previous week. The French market recorded the largest increase at 5.5%, while the British market had the smallest growth at 0.4%. Other markets, including the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Portugal, and Italy, saw demand rise between 0.6% and 3.0%, with Italy experiencing its fifth consecutive week of growth. Conversely, in the Spanish market, demand fell by 1.7% after four weeks of increases. This decline was partly attributed to the national holiday on Friday, December 6 (Spanish Constitution Day).
Temperatures dropped across all the analyzed markets during the first week of December, with Italy experiencing the largest decline of 2.0°C. Other countries, including Spain, Belgium, Great Britain, Portugal, the Netherlands, France, and Germany, saw temperature reductions ranging from 0.3°C in Spain to 1.6°C in Germany. For the second week of December, forecasts from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting suggest an increase in electricity demand across major European markets, as temperatures are expected to continue decreasing in most regions.
Regarding electricity prices, there was a mixed trend in the first week of December. Weekday prices were generally higher than the previous week, while weekend prices tended to be lower, leading to weekly prices that remained similar to the previous week’s levels. Most markets saw price increases, with the Belgian EPEX SPOT market rising by 4.6% and the German EPEX SPOT market rising by 12%. However, the MIBEL market for Spain and Portugal experienced the largest price drop, down 16%. Additionally, the French EPEX SPOT and the UK N2EX markets saw declines of 2.2% and 4.5%, respectively.
In the week of December 2, average electricity prices in most European markets remained above €100/MWh. The exceptions were the Nordic countries’ Nord Pool market and the French market, with the lowest averages of €45.48/MWh and €95.58/MWh, respectively. The Italian IPEX market recorded the highest weekly average at €147.07/MWh. Other markets saw prices ranging from €104.10/MWh in Spain to €114.12/MWh in Germany. On December 4, most markets reached their highest prices for the week, with Italy hitting its highest daily price since October 17, 2023. Meanwhile, Belgium and France recorded their highest daily prices since early December 2023.
The price increases in some European markets during the first week of December were driven by rising gas prices, growing electricity demand, and reduced wind and solar energy production. On the other hand, increased wind production in the Iberian Peninsula and France, higher solar output in Spain and Portugal, and reduced demand in Spain helped lower prices in these regions.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts for the second week of December indicate that prices are likely to rise in most European electricity markets, influenced by a drop in wind energy production and an increase in demand. Additionally, solar energy production in Spain is expected to decline, AleaSoft reports.
