According to AleaSoft Forecasting, in the first days of the week of February 19, prices in the main European electricity markets registered a downward trend. In most cases, prices started to recover in the last days of the week. However, when taking into account the whole of the fourth week of February, weekly averages were lower than those of the previous week in all markets analyzed at AleaSoft Energy Forecasting. The MIBEL market of Spain and Portugal reached the largest drop, which was 54%. In contrast, the IPEX market of Italy and the N2EX market of the United Kingdom registered the smallest declines, 7.6% and 8.2%, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices fell between 13% in the EPEX SPOT market of Belgium and France, and 17% in the Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries.
In the fourth week of February, weekly averages were below €60/MWh in most analyzed European electricity markets. The exceptions were the British market, with an average of €66.74/MWh, and the Italian market, with an average of €82.03/MWh. In contrast, the Portuguese and Spanish markets registered the lowest weekly prices, €24.36/MWh and €24.45/MWh, respectively. In the rest of the analyzed markets, prices ranged from €46.48/MWh in the Nordic market to €57.51/MWh in the Dutch market.
As for hourly prices, from February 23 to 26, the MIBEL market registered twenty-three hours with prices below €1/MWh. Of these, there were eight hours with a price of €0/MWh.
During the week of February 19, the decrease in the average price of gas and CO2 emission rights and the increase in wind energy production led to lower prices in the analyzed European electricity markets. The increase in solar energy production also contributed to lower prices in the German and Iberian markets. In the case of the Italian market, demand fell, which also helped prices to decrease.
AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s price forecasts indicate that in the last week of February, prices might increase in most European electricity markets. The increase in demand and the drop in wind energy production will lead to this behaviour. However, prices in the Iberian and Italian markets might continue to fall, influenced by the increase in wind energy production in Spain and Italy, as well as by the increase in Spanish solar energy production, AleaSoft Forecasting reports.
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