TTF natural gas prices continued their downward trend ahead of the heating season, with only modest daily fluctuations of a few tenths of a euro. In the third week of September, abundant liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, mild temperatures reducing gas demand, and high wind energy output kept TTF gas futures below €33/MWh. By the end of Week 38, prices slipped slightly from €32.82/MWh the previous week to €32.43/MWh. Daily prices showed some volatility—for example, on September 19, the price fell to €32.3/MWh, down -2.00% from the prior day.
In the ICE market, TTF futures for October 2025 delivery were lower compared to Week 37, remaining near €32/MWh throughout the week. The weekly maximum settlement price was €32.952/MWh on Thursday, September 18, up 1.7% from the previous day and 1.9% higher than the prior Thursday. On Friday, September 19, the minimum settlement price reached €32.308/MWh, down -2.0% from the previous day and -1.1% lower than the previous Friday. The weekly average settlement price fell -1.2% compared to Week 37, settling at €32.428/MWh.
Gas prices in Europe have remained low for several months, primarily due to expectations of peace and abundant supply. Russia and Ukraine are negotiating a ceasefire, with support from the United States. The Dutch TTF exchange recorded the lowest prices since December, following remarks by Russian President Vladimir Putin about peace during meetings with leaders from Ukraine and the United States.
On September 19, the European Commission announced its 19th package of sanctions against Russia over the 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, aiming to accelerate a ban on Russian gas imports, which will be phased out gradually by January 1, 2027. EU member states must now discuss the package before adopting it unanimously.
Slovakia and Hungary have indicated they will resist pressure from US President Donald Trump to cut Russian oil and gas imports until alternative suppliers are secured. These landlocked countries, bordering Ukraine, have historically relied on Russian energy. Since the 2022 invasion, both countries have pursued supply diversification. Slovakia imports about a third of its oil via the Adria pipeline from non-Russian sources and maintains flexible contracts with Western gas suppliers. Nevertheless, officials close to Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who maintains ties with Moscow, consider Russian supplies strategically important.
In addition to the current sanctions package, the European Union is considering further trade measures targeting Russian oil imports still purchased by Hungary and Slovakia. Proposed measures include a ban on Russian liquefied natural gas, initially affecting short-term contracts six months after adoption and extending to long-term agreements starting January 1, 2027.
