TTF gas futures rose during the second week of October 2025, supported by stronger gas-for-power demand amid reduced wind generation across Southeast Europe.
Futures for November 2025 delivery on the ICE market averaged around €33/MWh, about 3.4% higher than in Week 40. Prices peaked on Tuesday, October 7, at €33.246/MWh — 0.4% above the previous session and 5.8% higher week-on-week — before falling to their weekly low of €32.17/MWh on Friday, October 10, still 2.3% above the previous Friday.
Despite cooler temperatures boosting heating demand and gas-for-power use rising to 2,775 GWh per day, abundant LNG supplies — mostly landing through French ports — kept prices in check. Egypt’s postponement of LNG shipments until next year further added to short-term oversupply, easing market pressure. Meanwhile, stable Norwegian flows continue to provide balance, though outages at key fields such as Troll serve as reminders of lingering supply risks.
Analysts from LSEG expect TTF prices to trade within a narrow range with a slight upward bias as tightening supply conditions gradually offset soft short-term fundamentals. However, potential disruptions or sudden demand spikes could renew volatility, particularly heading into winter.
Europe’s gas supply balance remains increasingly dependent on LNG. Reuters reports that up to 160 additional LNG cargoes may be needed this winter due to lower storage and reduced pipeline deliveries from Russia and Algeria, further deepening reliance on U.S. gas.
LNG imports are projected to reach 820 tankers in 2025, up from 660 last year, representing 48% of total EU gas supply — equivalent to roughly 16 billion cubic meters (bcm). For comparison, LNG accounted for just 10% of the EU’s gas mix a decade ago and 23% in 2021 before the war in Ukraine reshaped European energy flows.
Over the last three winters, LNG has supplied between 34% and 37% of Europe’s seasonal gas needs, up from an average of 18% in earlier years. With imports from Algeria declining and Norway facing gradual production reductions, Europe’s gas outlook is becoming more exposed to external factors such as Chinese LNG demand, which can trigger price swings and complicate storage planning.
According to Florence Schmit, energy strategist at Rabobank, the shift toward LNG dependence and lower pipeline inflows will require steeper storage withdrawals and injections in the coming years, making Europe’s winter gas balance more vulnerable to global market volatility.
