European natural gas futures fell below €31/MWh in the third week of November 2025, as forecasts pointed to milder weather and optimism grew around renewed peace efforts in Ukraine. The latest U.S. proposal raised hopes that a negotiated settlement could ease geopolitical tensions and potentially relax sanctions on energy exports—both of which exerted downward pressure on prices.
TTF gas futures on the ICE exchange for December 2025 delivery traded within a narrow band throughout the week, remaining close to €31/MWh. On Tuesday, November 18, the contract reached its weekly high of €31.694/MWh after a modest 0.9% daily increase—1.9% higher than the previous Tuesday. Prices then fluctuated slightly before falling to the weekly low of €30.198/MWh on Friday, November 21, down 3.1% from the prior session and 3.4% from the previous Friday. This marked the lowest settlement price since May 2024, as updated weather models projected a shift to milder temperatures following the cold snap in northwest Europe. The weekly average reached €31.0818/MWh, up 0.4% from Week 46.
For several months, European gas futures have hovered around €32/MWh, but the combination of milder weather expectations and shifting geopolitical dynamics has pushed prices lower. Despite storage levels declining faster than at the same time last year, rising LNG flows—particularly from the U.S.—have eased concerns about supply tightness.
Analysts point to two major forces behind the current softness in prices. First, U.S. LNG exports have surged due to new export capacity in the Gulf of Mexico. Shipments were 20% higher year-on-year in the first half of 2025, and full-year growth of roughly 25% is expected as additional terminals begin operations and European buyers continue reducing Russian gas purchases. Second, China’s LNG imports have fallen sharply—down 17% in the first eight months of the year. The resulting gap is being filled through increased Russian pipeline deliveries and expanded coal-fired power generation, which China can support through strong domestic production.
However, low gas prices have not accelerated the refilling of EU strategic storage. As of November 23, EU inventories were 78.7% full—well below the 90% target and roughly 10 percentage points lower than at the same period last year. Among major markets, France and Italy are nearing target levels with 88.0% and 89.7% storage, respectively. Germany lags significantly behind, with just 70.6% of its storage filled—highlighting uneven preparedness ahead of winter.
