European natural gas prices in Week 11 of 2025 saw significant fluctuations, particularly on Monday, March 10, when prices hit their lowest for the week. This drop followed comments by Russian President Vladimir Putin, who suggested that a potential energy cooperation deal between Moscow and Washington could boost Russian gas supplies to Europe. Despite the EU’s ongoing efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian gas after the invasion of Ukraine, discussions about the possibility of resumed Russian gas exports have resurfaced, particularly as U.S. President Donald Trump intensifies efforts to end the war. However, the EU is still committed to phasing out Russian energy use by 2027, with plans already in place.
Throughout Week 11, European gas prices showed volatility, reflecting the uncertainty surrounding Russian gas exports. Putin’s comments about a potential agreement for a European pipeline increased speculation, although the EU remains determined to end its dependence on Russian energy. Concerns about low storage levels also contributed to price volatility, as storage capacity reached just 36% last week, well below the normal seasonal level of 47%.
On the ICE market, TTF gas futures for April 2025 delivery experienced a mix of gains and losses. Prices hit their weekly minimum on March 10 at €41.23/MWh, marking a 3.2% increase from the previous week but an 8.8% drop compared to the prior Monday. Prices rose to their weekly peak of €45.71/MWh on March 11, a 3.6% increase from the previous day but still 1.7% lower than the previous Tuesday. The prices then dipped slightly before rebounding on March 14. The weekly average settled at €42.11/MWh, down 6.5% from Week 10. As of the latest data, the one-month forward contract at TTF was trading at €42.40/MWh. The volatility in TTF prices reached a year-high in March, fueled by supply uncertainties and varying demand patterns.
The primary driver behind the price swings appears to be speculation surrounding potential Russian gas exports to Europe if a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine is reached. However, such talks could take months, and even if an agreement is reached, it seems unlikely to have a significant impact on Russian gas deliveries to Europe in the 2025 filling season. Furthermore, restarting gas transit through pipelines that have been used for military operations would be politically challenging in Ukraine.
Even if an agreement is reached, European buyers would have to agree to purchase additional Russian gas, which could be hindered by several issues, including unresolved legal disputes with Gazprom, damaged trust, and negative public perception. As negotiations continue, TTF prices will likely remain volatile due to ongoing rumors and proposals concerning Russian gas supply to Europe.
In addition, the European gas balance is becoming increasingly strained. The EU’s storage deficit compared to last year has risen from 16 bcm at the start of February to 25 bcm by early March. Meanwhile, Ukraine’s gas storage levels have fallen to a record low of just over 1 bcm of working gas, significantly lower than last year’s levels. Ukraine’s domestic gas production has also been heavily impacted by Russian attacks, with estimates suggesting a 40% drop in production. Restoring production could take months, and Ukraine will likely need to import 4-5 bcm of gas from the EU to fill its storage to the required 13 bcm level by the start of the heating season. This would cost an estimated €2-2.5 billion, based on current forward prices.
