On September 16, 2024, TTF prices fell by 4.4% to €34.081/MWh, marking their lowest level since late July due to mild weather conditions. Despite reduced gas flows from Norway due to ongoing heavy maintenance, EU gas storage levels continue to rise, remaining over 93% full. Norwegian gas flows are expected to increase sharply following the completion of maintenance at the Kaarstoe and Kollsnes processing plants.
On the morning of September 17, Dutch wholesale gas prices rose to €35.547/MWh after hitting seven-week lows the previous day, driven by the milder weather that reduced demand. Market traders anticipate a technical rebound, suggesting that prices might stabilize.
However, on September 19, prices dipped again following reports from Ukrainian news outlet Ukrainska Pravda that Ukraine had reached an agreement to temporarily transit Azerbaijani gas to Europe, coinciding with the expiration of its transit deal with Russia. While Ukraine is in discussions regarding this arrangement, uncertainty remains about its feasibility, contributing to ongoing price volatility related to Russian gas transit.
By September 20, European natural gas prices rebounded as forecasts predicted colder weather for the following week, prompting concerns about winter preparedness. Prices increased by 4.1%, recovering from the previous day’s decline. Gazprom reported stable gas supplies through Ukraine, stating it would send 42.4 million cubic meters (Mcm) via the Sudzha gas metering station, as transit through other routes like Nord Stream-1 remains suspended.
As of September 17, applications for gas transit through Ukraine amounted to 42.344 Mcm. The Ukrainian Gas Transmission System Operator (UGTSO) confirmed that Gazprom was supplying gas at the agreed volume. Notably, since May 11, 2022, applications for another entry point, Sokhranovka, have been rejected due to declared force majeure by Ukraine.
On September 16, gas pumping was recorded at 42.3 Mcm, slightly below typical working day levels, but rebounded to 42.4 Mcm the following day. Meanwhile, gas flows from Turkey to Bulgaria via the Strandja-2/Malkochlar entry point were recorded at 43.51 Mcm, with an increase to 50.55 Mcm the next day.
Overall, while EU underground gas storage continues to be injected, some countries, including the Czech Republic, Denmark, and Poland, are starting to withdraw gas. As of mid-September, storage facilities in Germany were filled to 95.61%, France to 91.62%, Austria to 92.21%, and Italy to 94.87%.
