The Summer Supply Outlook 2024 from the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Gas (ENTSO-G) highlights that with high storage levels at the start of summer 2024 and an anticipated increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply, the EU gas network is well-positioned to meet demand and fill storage by the end of the injection season (November 1) without relying on Russian gas.
The expansion of gas infrastructure, particularly the LNG terminals established since autumn 2022, has significantly reduced the EU’s dependence on Russian pipeline gas by enabling greater imports from alternative sources. However, if Russian pipeline supply is completely halted and LNG supply to Europe becomes limited, it would necessitate increased withdrawals from gas storage to satisfy demand. This scenario could result in very low storage levels by the end of winter 2024/2025. To mitigate this risk, gas demand would need to be reduced by 15% (compared to the average of the last five years), and additional LNG supplies would be essential to avoid shortages. Ukrainian storage facilities could also play a crucial role in enhancing the gas system’s flexibility, offering an extra 10 billion cubic meters of storage capacity.
The Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) reported that gas storage levels reached 75% in early July, marking one of the highest levels in the past five summers. This provides a cautiously optimistic outlook for the coming months. ACER agrees with ENTSO-G’s recommendations to manage the risks of a gas supply-demand imbalance in the event of a complete cessation of Russian pipeline supply and limited LNG availability to the EU.
ACER also stressed the importance of closely monitoring gas supply flows and storage filling trends. Given the strong interdependence between the electricity and gas sectors, ACER emphasized the need for close cooperation between ENTSO-G and the European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity (ENTSO-E) to ensure consistent assumptions and outcomes in their respective seasonal outlooks.
