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Europe: Electricity prices rise mid-December amid higher gas, CO₂ costs, forecasted to fall next week

During the third week of December, average electricity prices rose in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The Nord Pool market in the Nordic countries was the exception, falling by 32%. Among the increases, Germany’s EPEX SPOT market recorded the smallest rise at 1.4%, while the UK’s N2EX market saw the largest increase at 11%. Other markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting experienced price increases ranging from 2.2% in Belgium to 9.9% in France.

For the week of December 15, weekly averages exceeded €85/MWh in most European markets. The Nordic market and France were exceptions, averaging €39.60/MWh and €69.13/MWh, respectively. The Italian IPEX market registered the highest weekly average at €116.90/MWh, while other markets ranged from €85.11/MWh in Belgium to €91.35/MWh in Germany.

Regarding daily prices, on Friday, December 19, the Nordic market recorded the week’s lowest daily average at €12.54/MWh, the only market with daily prices below €30/MWh. Conversely, most markets saw daily prices above €100/MWh in certain sessions, except the UK, France, and Nordics. In Italy, daily prices exceeded €105/MWh throughout the week, peaking at €121.83/MWh on Tuesday, December 16.

The price increase in the week of December 15 was driven by rising gas prices, higher CO₂ emission allowance costs, and increased demand in most markets. In Germany, reduced wind energy production also contributed to higher prices.

For the fourth week of December, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting predicts a decline in prices across major European electricity markets, influenced by lower demand. Additionally, wind energy production is expected to increase in most markets, while solar generation will rise in Italy and the MIBEL market of Spain, AleaSoft reports.

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