In the first week of October, average electricity prices declined in most major European markets compared to the previous week. The only exceptions were the MIBEL markets of Portugal and Spain, where prices increased by 14% and 15%, respectively. The French EPEX SPOT market recorded the smallest decrease, at 2.8%, while the UK’s N2EX market experienced the largest drop, 32%. In the remaining markets analyzed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, prices fell between 6.1% in Italy’s IPEX market and 18% in Belgium’s EPEX SPOT market.
During the week of September 29, average prices remained below €70/MWh in most European markets. The Dutch, German, and Italian markets were exceptions, with weekly averages of €75.45/MWh, €79.17/MWh, and €101.99/MWh, respectively. The Nord Pool market of the Nordic countries recorded the lowest weekly average, €35.33/MWh. In the other markets analyzed, prices ranged between €42.94/MWh in France and €69.42/MWh in Portugal.
On Saturday, October 4, most markets registered daily prices below €5/MWh. In both Germany and the Netherlands, daily prices turned negative. The Dutch market recorded the lowest value of the week, -€1.11/MWh, marking its lowest price since July 7, 2024. In Germany, the price reached -€0.29/MWh, the lowest daily level since December 25, 2023. In the UK, prices were slightly higher at €0.48/MWh, but this was still the lowest daily price since May 24, 2020.
Despite these lows, there were also days during the first week of October when daily prices exceeded €100/MWh in Germany, Belgium, the UK, Italy, and the Netherlands. On September 30, the German market recorded the highest daily average of the week, €136.17/MWh.
The overall decline in prices during the week of September 29 was driven by lower gas prices, increased wind and solar energy generation, and reduced electricity demand in most markets. However, the MIBEL market saw prices rise due to growing demand in Spain and Portugal, combined with a decline in renewable generation from wind and solar sources in the Iberian Peninsula.
According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, electricity prices are expected to increase in most major European markets during the second week of October. This trend will be influenced by reduced wind energy production, higher demand in some regions, and a decrease in solar generation in Germany, AleaSoft reports.
