During the third week of February, settlement prices for Brent oil futures in the ICE market showed an upward trend in most sessions. As a result, on Thursday, February 20, these futures reached a weekly high of $76.48 per barrel. However, the price dropped by 2.7% on Friday, February 21, reaching its lowest point of the week at $74.43 per barrel, which was 0.4% lower than the previous Friday and marked the lowest price since February 7.
This price fluctuation was largely driven by supply issues in Russia and the United States. In Russia, supply was affected by damage from a Ukrainian attack, while in the United States, production faced disruptions due to low temperatures. Despite these supply constraints, peace negotiations for Ukraine brought downward pressure on prices, contributing to the decline towards the end of the week. Additionally, news of an increase in Iraqi oil supply on Sunday suggested that prices could continue to drop in the following week.
For TTF gas futures in the ICE market, prices remained below €50/MWh during the third week of February. On Tuesday, February 18, these futures reached a weekly high of €49.21/MWh, but prices fell after that. By Friday, February 21, the futures had dropped to €47.19/MWh, marking a 6.9% decrease from the previous Friday and the lowest level since January 18. The decline was largely attributed to reduced demand resulting from milder temperatures, despite low reserve levels in Europe. The potential for an increase in Russian gas supply if the war in Ukraine were to end also exerted downward pressure on prices.
CO2 emission allowance futures for the December 2025 reference contract on the EEX market saw a decline as well. On Monday, February 17, they peaked at €77.21 per ton, but this was 3.2% lower than the previous Friday. The downward trend continued through the week, with prices reaching a weekly low of €72.67 per ton on Thursday, February 20, marking the lowest level since January 9. The market saw a slight recovery on Friday, February 21, with the price settling at €73.90 per ton, but it was still 7.3% lower than the previous week.
In summary, prices for Brent oil, TTF gas and CO2 emission allowances all experienced declines during the third week of February, influenced by a mix of supply disruptions, weather-related demand changes, and geopolitical developments, AleaSoft reports.
