European Union member states are unlikely to agree on a full ban on Russian oil imports or on prohibiting maritime services tied to Russian crude shipments in the bloc’s upcoming 21st sanctions package, diplomatic sources said. The lack of consensus reflects divisions among governments over whether to adopt tougher measures.
In Brussels, discussions have shifted toward the future of the existing oil price cap mechanism. Policymakers are focusing on how to keep the system effective as market conditions change quickly.
Debate centers on whether to keep the current ceiling
Rather than adding new restrictions on oil trade and transportation, EU governments are considering whether to maintain the current price ceiling for Russian crude. Officials are concerned that the mechanism’s built-in formula, which adjusts automatically with market developments, could reduce sanctions impact if global prices rise.
Under rules introduced in 2025, the maximum permitted price for Russia’s Urals crude is set at 15% below the average market price. The level is reviewed every six months, and European shipping, insurance, and related service providers are barred from handling Russian oil sold above the threshold.
Market drivers raise risk of higher allowable export prices
Geopolitical and shipping disruptions have complicated how the system functions. Higher crude prices have been linked to tensions in the Middle East and disruptions affecting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
The current cap is set at $44.1 per barrel. If the automatic adjustment mechanism remains in place, the next review expected later this summer could raise the limit to around $65 per barrel.
Options include temporary freeze of automatic adjustment
EU officials are reportedly weighing options to temporarily freeze the existing ceiling rather than let it increase automatically. Supporters of a freeze argue for maintaining the current level without requiring agreement on additional restrictions that currently do not have broad backing among member states.
The discussions remain focused on preserving the effectiveness of the cap as revisions approach under changing market conditions.
